In 1990 the Polish Cigarette Market Stood at in Excess of 100 B Pieces; Today It is Down to 52 B Pieces, According to a New Study on ASDReports

Wednesday 3 September 2014, Amsterdam

Report description overview

There is a thriving and rapidly expanding non duty paid sector which by 2013 is forecast to exceed 12 billion pieces, equivalent to over a fifth of the market. Prospects for future growth in duty paid cigarette sales are poor.  It is likely to come under continuing pressure from rising prices as well as growth in ryo tobacco.  By 2022 volumes are expected to be down by around 9% although in per capita terms the decline will be less as a result of a declining population due to emigration.

The Difference

• Data on market size and structure of the cigarette markets - Gives the consumer exact details on the overall cigarette market which is ideal for laying the foundations of your needs
• Sales by class of cigarettes - This will give you a breakdown to highlight which brands are more successful so you can target niche producers of tobacco
• Prospects & Forecasts - Forecasting allows for accurate prediction of future sales based on past performance. This helps any business run efficiently and plan strategies for the future. Forecasting also plays a key role in the expansion of a business.

Report highlights
Despite recent declines in consumption, Poland continues to be one of the largest cigarette markets in Europe. Sales have been adversely affected in recent years by the impact of EU tax harmonisation which has encouraged contraband and usage of fine cut tobacco for RYO cigarettes. The duty paid market has been shrinking annually since 2005, and in 2012 stood at just over 52 billion pieces. Estimates for 2013 suggest a further decline to just less than 47 billion pieces to place the market at just over half its level in 1990. Poland has until 2018 to meet the new EU minimum tax requirements. Production can be expected to rise further as a result of multinational transferring export production from other countries to Poland. Philip Morris is expected to increase the proportion exported from its state-of-the-art Krakow factory in future, while Imperial and Altadis export between 40-50% of their production and Imperial is also expected to increase the use of Poland as an export production base. JTI announced in 2011 that production from its recently closed plant in Austria is being transferred to Poland. Only Imperial Tobacco, of the top 4, has not announced any major plans to expand output. The rpeort is not hopeful for the Polish market, with the cigarette sector expected to come under further pressure from rising prices as well as growth of RYO. In the short-term the profile of the non-duty paid sector will continue to remain significant although some progress in combatting this is likely over the next few years thereby slowing the rate of decline in duty paid sales. Yet beyond any progress from such success, duty paid cigarettes will continue to come under pressure from some consumers switching to RYO and others reducing consumption or giving up smoking. By 2022 total volumes are expected to be down by 8.7% to 47.55 billion pieces, with per capita sales down by 7.1% to 1,260 pieces.