Commercial Aviation’s Roaring Comeback
Commercial Aviation has been making a roaring comeback from the pandemic with strong passenger demand levels courtesy strong pent-up demand for travel and sustained growth in air cargo traffic across most key markets & regions. The global airline passenger traffic is reaching the pre-pandemic levels now in Q1 2023 aided further by the opening up of China in late 2022 after jettisoning of the zero-tolerance COVID policy. At the industry OEMs level, Boeing’s 737 MAX program now seems to be stabilizing and heading towards the cruise phase following a spate of new, big-ticket orders while the Airbus’ A321XLR is gearing up for certification & EIS in Q2 2024 following its maiden flight last year while the 777X program has been rescheduled for certification in 2025. The ongoing recovery in demand & activity levels across airlines globally has been steady as well as encouraging and the global air passenger demand is projected to grow by almost 3% from the pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023 with the airline industry projected to be in black for 2023 albeit with marginal profits.
Supply Side-Led Market Scenario
The view from the supply side, however, is complex & challenging marked by supply chain disruptions, constraints and labor shortages with the situation being really acute at the engine manufacturers level with them unable to ramp up engines production from the abysmally low levels reached through the pandemic. Further, the Airbus-Boeing duopoly has been raring to ramp up production levels on the narrow bodies in alignment with surging & quicker than expected demand recovery. However, their respective supply chains and the global aviation supplier base are unable to match the pace being expected by the aircraft OEMs as they chart their way out of the pandemic blues & inflicted financial blows. Boeing already has plans to ramp-up 737 MAX production rate to 50 per month (from the current 31) by the middle of the current decade aided by the plans for establishment of a new production line for the 737 MAX program at Everett while Airbus is gunning for a production rate of 65 per month by 2024 & 75 by 2025 for its A320neo family (up from the current rate of 50 per month) with most of the engine OEMs having already outlined plans to ramp-up engines production & deliveries in 2023 which are likely to reach the pre-pandemic production rates this year.
Robust Long-Term Fundamentals for Commercial Aviation
The long-term industry fundamentals for commercial aviation remain robust and firmly in place with forecasts for strong tailwinds to prevail, in form of deliveries of around 40,000+ new airplanes being projected by the industry projected over the next two decades, with almost 80% of them forecasted to be narrow bodies. Boeing’s new narrow-body, which is likely to enter market by the middle of next decade to fill a key void in Boeing’s product portfolio to take on the A321XLR, is likely to be a key growth opportunity for aviation suppliers over medium term. However, sustainability challenges remain the top long term priority for commercial aviation with the industry required to go green and absolutely carbon-neutral by 2050 by transitioning to sustainable power sources with Electric and Hydrogen-powered airplanes likely to rule the skies as well as the future complemented by traditional airplanes operating with conventional turbofan engines powered by SAFs as a drop-in fuel.
Radical, Disruptive Propulsive Technologies Needed for Transition to Sustainability
The near-term outlook for the Global Commercial Aircraft Market, thus, contrastingly is going to be dominated by the supply side for sure which is difficult, complex & challenging with the situation gradually ameliorating but is likely to hinder plans being chalked out by the industry OEMs to ramp up production rates over near term. Against this backdrop, the report analyzes and provides insights into key industry, market & technology trends likely to shape the future of the Global Commercial Aircraft Market over near to medium term followed by outlining of emerging, potential growth opportunities. The report also incorporates analysis of key issues & challenges which are likely to impact and shape industry’s future over near to medium term. The report also identifies key driving & restraining forces for the industry & assesses their potential degree of impact through a force field analysis. The report concludes by providing a comprehensive outlook & demand growth projections for the Global Commercial Aircraft Market.
The report would be indispensable for those having strategic interest & stakes in the Global Commercial Aircraft Market. The report will be extremely useful for
- Key Decision-Makers
- Program Offices & Program Managers
- Top Management of Industry OEMs, Players across Industry Value Chain & Other Companies
- Defense Procurement Executives, Defense Departments, Program Staff
- Suppliers, Vendors, Technology & Services Providers and other Key Players in the Industry Value Chain
- Existing & Potential Investors
- Industry & Company Analysts
- M&A Advisory Firms
- Strategy & Management Consulting Firms
- PE Firms, Venture Capitalists and Financing & Leasing Companies
- Researchers and all those associated with the industry in general