The present document is an overview of defense budgets analysis and forecasting from prominent countries and markets ; namely the US, Brazil, UK, France, Germany and Australia.

The defense budgets’ analysis and forecasting is part of Market Forecast’s expanded capacity on country analysis. The aim is to also provide top-down data using our methodological approach so as to better understand a state’s spending patterns and priorities, as well as its opportunities. In conjunction with information on the political, economic and security landscape, the current state of the military forces, the market structure and its points of entry, we will offer our customers an indispensable tool to expand within or penetrate new markets.

Throughout the pandemic many countries have put a significant effort in maintaining their defense budgets to the pre-pandemic levels as a means to support their defense industry, its supply chain, the jobs and their military capabilities, in a challenging environment. One where risks have remained unchanged despite the disruption in our daily lives.

As the countries are gradually coming out of the crisis and their economies are picking up pace, there will be fiscal space available for the expansion of defense budgets. Therefore, force structure and procurement plans that were put on hold will now unfold. However, each country faces a different set of political, security social and economic challenges, and prioritizes its economy in its own unique way, resulting in an ad-hoc approach to defense budgeting.

In this report we see that the UK and the US set out new priorities. The first boosted its defense spending with an additional GBP16 bn for the next four years, but the new priorities are on the development of naval forces, cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence. In the US, the new administration wants to streamline the budget, enhance R&D and reduce budget deficits. France and Australia will continue to increase their budgets, implementing their procurement programs, while Germany, despite the increases, will not reach NATO’s 2% of GDP spent on defense anytime soon. Finally, Brazil’s defense budget will be burdened by increased spending on personnel while facing short-term risks by the impact of the pandemic in the economy.

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