The renewable energy market in Southern Africa is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 6% in the forecast period of 2020-2025. The increasing power demand and efforts to electrify the majority of the population in countries like Madagascar, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are expected to drive the market for renewable energy in the forecast period. Upcoming projects in countries like South Africa and Mozambique are expected to create significant opportunities for renewable energy companies. On the other hand, lack of acceptance in countries like Malawi, Madagascar, and Botswana and high installation costs for renewable energy projects are a few restraining factors for the growth of the market.
- Due to favorable conditions of land and climate, solar energy is expected to continue its dominance in the renewable market of Southern Africa. Several projects are under construction, which is expected to be operational in the forecast period.
- With the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), South Africa is aiming to achieve 42% of the share of renewable energy by 2030. The IRP is expected to create significant opportunities for the renewable market in the future.
- South Africa, with more than 6 GW of installed renewable energy capacity in 2019, is dominating the Southern African region and is expected to lead in the forecast period also.
Key Market Trends
Solar Energy is Expected to Drive the Market
- In 2019, Univergy Solar announced to develop and implement a 135 MW project in northern Zambia and another 65 MW project in Zambia’s Copperbelt with an investment of more than USD 200 million.
- In 2019, the Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe issued a request to seek partners for the development and construction of seven solar parks, with a combined generation capacity of 235 MW. With the installation of multiple solar projects, considerable growth in the stagnant solar market can be observed.
- In 2019, Eni signed an agreement with the government of Angola to develop a 50 MW solar plant in the province of Namibe. The plant will assist the nation’s plan to deploy 600 MW of solar energy by 2022.
- Southern Africa installed more than 3400 MW of solar energy by 2019. With upcoming projects and investments from international companies, solar energy can witness significant growth in the forecast period.
- In 2020, for the growth of solar energy in Zimbabwe, the government decided to implement a proper independent power producer development plan for large scale PV, with the help of the World Bank.
- Southern Africa has tremendous potential for solar energy due to its geographical advantage. With a gradual increase in interest from different nations, solar power is expected to dominate the market in the future.
South Africa to Dominate the Market
- South Africa’s government is expecting to install 14.4GW of new wind power capacity between 2022 and 2030 under its final Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). By 2030, wind energy is estimated to contribute 17.8% of annual energy generation in South Africa
- According to the South African Wind Energy Association, South Africa in 2019 had 22 fully operational wind farms and 11 under construction. The under-construction plants are expected to be operational in the forecast period and drive the market further.
- The Department of Energy of South Africa is planning to allocate a gigawatt of solar per year in 2023, 2025, and 2028-30. With this, net solar capacity is expected to reach more than 8 GW by 2030.
- South Africa has witnessed considerable growth in renewable energy from 3.4 GW in 2015 to 6.1 GW in 2019. With new projects expected in the future, South Africa is anticipated to dominate the market.
The Southern Africa renewable energy market is fragmented. Some of the major companies include Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SA, Scatec Solar ASA, juwi AG, and Acciona, SA.
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