The South Sudan oil and gas market is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 5% during the forecast period. Increasing the production of oil and rising investments into the oil and gas sector is expected to drive the market in the forecast period. However, instability caused by the civil war in the country along with the high volatility of oil prices is expected to restraint the market.

  • The downstream sector is expected to increase significantly in the forecast period due to the increase in the investments being in the industry. After being separated from the north, where most of the refineries were situated, it has one become of the major initiatives by the government to build a refinery in the country
  • There have been signs of ending the civil war, which has been ravaging the country. Peace in the country may lead to much higher growth and may act as an opportunity for the market players,
  • Increasing the production of oil is expected to be the most significant driver of the market in the forecast period as the country depends heavily on the sale of oil and gas for most of its exports to other countries. An increase in investments is also expected to be a significant driver in the period.



Key Market Trends

Downstream Sector to Witness Significant Growth

  • The downstream oil industry in South Sudan is an essential sector in the country’s economy since most of the country’s export earnings are spent on imported petroleum products. The South Sudan oil industry is regulated and monitored by the Ministry of Petroleum through the Petroleum Exploration and Production Authority.
  • In 2018, South Sudan has no domestic refining capacity, so it had to rely on imported petroleum products to meet domestic demand. In order to reduce the reliance on imports, the South Sudanese government accelerated the development of two refineries in Bentiu (5 thousand b/d) and Tangrial (10 thousand b/d); however, the poor security environment has impeded the development of downstream infrastructure.
  • South Sudan increased its oil production, by 17.5%, from 6.4 million tonnes, in 2018, from 5.5 million tonnes in 2017. Hence, increased production is expected to proliferate the growth of the South Sudan oil and gas market during the forecast period.
  • South Sudan is inviting international and local investors to participate in a refinery project developed on a PPP basis. Proposed refineries in South Sudan are Akon with refining capacity 50 thousand barrels per day and Gameza with a refining capacity of 100 thousand barrels per day.



Increasing Production of Oil to Drive the Market

  • South Sudan increased its oil production, by 17.5%,to 6.4 million tonnes, in 2018, from 5.5 million tonnes in 2017. Increased production is expected to generate the growth of the South Sudan oil and gas market during the forecast period.
  • In South Sudan, the ongoing civil war and political instability have undermined its ability to increase output to peak production capacity. Low investor confidence and the unfortunate security situation pose severe obstacles to the government’s ability to boost crude oil production. However, an end to the conflict can significantly increase the growth of the market.
  • Exports from South Sudan have remained stagnant in the 2017 - 2018 period. Approximately 70,000 barrels of oil per day were exported to different countries in 2017 and 2018, which is expected to increase in the forecast period.
  • Hence, increasing oil production is expected to drive the growth in the forecast period, with increasing stability expected to attract more investments into the market.



Competitive Landscape

The South Sudan oil and gas market is consolidated. Some of the key players in this market include Nile Petroleum Corporation, Akon Refinery Company Ltd., China National Petroleum Corporation, Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas).

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