The content of this report will be updated with the latest scenarios based on the global COVID-19 Pandemic
After a period of economic uncertainty halfway through the last decade, Russia is now on a recovery mode, and its imports/exports are picking up. This has led to a significant need for
developing new transport corridors to experience a steady flow of goods in and out of the country. There are two areas that are of interest to Russian shippers: the Arctic and the Far East. The Arctic is a hotbed of logistics development, with roughly USD 136 billion being spent to ensure year-round Arctic transport by 2030.
The Northern Sea Route stands to improve transit times on important Russian cargoes, namely energy and hydrocarbons products, destined for China, Korea, and other Asian states. Presently, such goods, if not carried by pipeline, are shipped from Baltic Sea ports via the Suez Canal – with journey times taking up to 40 days. Russia’s road transport network is responsible by carrying the largest freight volume per sector in the whole Federation. However, the situation with costs getting higher, and a new tax system is affecting many small to medium-sized operations. That said, looking at the experience of trucking firms in Moscow, it can be seen the market strengthening.
Key Market Trends
Ecommerce to Drive 3PL, 4PL and Intralogistics
Online shopping has established a toehold in Russia’s retail sector and is poised to turn its small market share into a significant share heading into the new decade. In 2017, the share of e-commerce in retail sales was 3.47%, in 2018 - 4.07%. It is expected that eCommerce will represent 8% of total Russian retail sales by 2021 and increase further. Ecommerce purchases have been doubling in value in Russia year-on-year since the start of the 2010s. Based on this, there’s space for 3PL, 4PL, and intralogistics to really grow throughout the 2020s. Currently, outsourcing logistics services for retail companies covers 32% of this particular segment, when considering courier and delivery services.
In-house postal services represent 29% of the market, delivering 100 million parcels. Companies are always looking to streamline procedures in order to improve their bottom line. Russian e-tailers are no different. Significant savings are to be had for those companies that do
outsource. This will also present intralogistics opportunities, such as pitching and selling warehouse and inventory management equipment to Russian retailers. With more than 350 million parcels being delivered to Russian ecommerce shoppers, 3PL, 4PL, and intralogistics solutions providers are within striking distance of making real in roads in Russia.
According to a study, the overall share of e-commerce trade in Russia GDP in 2019 accounted only for 1.3% with USD 30.6 Billion B2C trade market evaluation. Another study shows that Russia exhibits one of the highest growth rates of online shopping as 71% of Russian customers shop online at least once a month and 79% of them use smartphones for online shopping.
Falling Automobile Sales in Russia
The Russian car market is braced for a turbulent year ahead, as a leading business association warns sales are likely to drop and more manufacturers could give up on Russia altogether. Sales of new cars dropped by 2.3% in 2019 to around 1.76 million units and are expected to fall by a further 2.1% in 2020.
The forecast puts Russia’s car market on course for its second annual contraction in two years, despite new sales in December rising 2.3% year on year and recovering from a 6.4% drop the previous month.
Russia’s car market was given a much-needed boost in 2018 when it expanded by 12.8%. But falling real incomes have fueled a subsequent contraction. Russia’s biggest automaker Avtovaz also expects the car market to contract again in 2020, primarily due to depressed consumer incomes. Automobile logistics is a major segment in the country and as the automotive sector is showing contraction the logistics market is expected to show slow growth.
The Russia freight and logistics market is moderately fragmented with the presence of major domestics players and the growing presence of international players. Russia is trying to improve its trade relations with South Asian countries and boost its trade with European countries. This presents more logistics players to enter the countries logistics market and gin advantage of the development. With the growth of e-commerce players providing e-commerce fulfillment services will see a rise.
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