The content of this report will be updated with the latest scenarios based on the global COVID-19 Pandemic
By the end of 2020, the global passenger vehicle demand is predicted to plunge by 11% due to Covid-19 pandemic and commercial vehicle industry is expected to witness a fall in the demand for the first time in the decade. All the major markets are estimated to witness sharp decline, while, the countries including the U.S., Italy, India, France, South Korea, Japan, China, United Kingdom, and Spain are expected to witness fall of more than 10%. From a more optimistic perspective, the year 2021 could see a positive growth- curve in terms of passenger cars demand; however, the auto industry would at least need minimum of 5 years’ time to regain the sales volumes of 2019.
The report predicts that passenger vehicle demand is expected to grow by 1.9% between 2020 to 2030 with more than 56 million cars equipped with some level of autonomy. The penetration rate of level 1 and level 2 autonomy would be highest during these years; while, level 3 autonomy will take slower pace. Besides, as per the current industry developments from tech companies and traditional OEMs, level 4/5 AVs for ride-hailing or car sharing are likely to be on streets by 2025. The trend shows that AVs for shared mobility would see larger scale deployment from 2025, across big cities with connected infrastructure and with high population density.
The detailed analysis of the ADAS & autonomous driving technology penetration in passenger and commercial vehicles, robotaxis, shuttles, pods and goods-delivery vehicles, autonomy package analysis, sensor and sub-component market, competitive assessment, and trends finds a major place in latest report “Edition 2020, ADAS & Autonomous Driving Technology- Market & Industry Analysis, Forecast – 2020 – 2040” published in June 2020.
The current effect of COVID-19 on auto sales, development of autonomous driving technologies and its future impact have been considered in the market analysis of the study. The autonomous shuttles and good-delivery autonomous vehicles have been deployed in few countries during this pandemic time which is expected to further give a push to this market. A separate analysis on these autonomous commercial vehicles and the competition between the players have been included in the study. Autonomous Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) has been a trending topic and automakers are promoting driverless ridesharing as low-cost transit option that has potential to change the transportation system. Car sharing is great opportunity particularly for the companies having hands-on autonomous vehicles such as Tesla, Daimler, Waymo, and others.
Driverless ridesharing is expected to become future of intelligent transportation. The early deployment of robotaxis is expected in the countries of Western Europe, the U.S., China, and Japan. However, post 2030, the deployment in Chinese market is anticipated to overtake the Western markets of the U.S. and Europe. The study has also focused on these potential markets and anticipated the demand for this way of commute in near future. By 2025, the commercial vehicle industry is expected to get disrupted largely by autonomous and connected vehicle technology. This penetration of autonomous driving in trucking industry is expected to bring multiple changes in the operations of OEMs and tech players. The development of SAE level 1 and level 2 trucks is making steady progress and expected to gain momentum early this year (2020) in some states of the U.S. and few European countries; while level 4 autonomy of trucks with estimated time to market between 2025 to 2030. The report is inclusive of level wise analysis of the complete commercial vehicle industry.
Sensors and software are the vital components for enabling the automation in the passenger as well as commercial vehicles. A typical autonomy package consist of key technologies such as – sensing and mapping hardware, sensor-supporting hardware, mapping and localization software, control systems and computing hardware, control system software, data/cyber security software, connectivity hardware, V2X/connectivity software, HMI & safety related hardware, and HMI software. While the key components are LiDAR, camera, radar, V2X hardware and software, mapping hardware and software, HMI hardware and software, cyber security software, embedded controls hardware and software, and other electronics & architecture. The market analysis of sensor suite and sub-components in the autonomous vehicle accounts the major share in the study. The autonomy package and the cost vary with every level of automation, which is also represented graphically in this study.
Moreover, to understand industry sentiments and every other aspect of this industry, the automotive analysts and consultants have interviewed more than 30 players in the ecosystem. These includes the OEMs, new entrants, sensor suppliers, component manufacturers, tier-1s, and tier-2s. Furthermore, the key enablers that are pushing the market towards new growth prospects and challenges that needs to be worked upon are analyzed in this research study. Also, understanding of the latest technological advancements and opportunities that could disrupt this market in near future, find a significant place in this study.