The global refining market is characterised by a high demand for petrochemicals and fuels for automobiles, which will keep the market growing for the next decade. Expanding population, increasing affordability, higher automobile penetration, lower oil prices, and increasing investments by companies in the developing regions of the world will aid in new refinery construction and upgrade of old facilities. Increasing automobile penetration will drive the demand for gasoline and diesel, mainly in Asia and Africa, which drives the need to expand refinery capacity to cater to expanding demand.
Asia is expected to be the key hub for refinery expansion, as the region invests heavily in new capacities and upgrading old ones to meet domestic demand and take advantage of export opportunities. China and the Middle East are expected to lead the way for refinery expansion, followed by India and Southeast Asia. These regions are expected to drive global growth, as they add more consumers to the market, which will drive demand for oil-based products.
Satisfying domestic demand is a key concern for most countries, as demand exceeds supply in many developing regions, especially in the Middle East, where countries and companies are focusing more on downstream activities after years of focus on upstream. Middle Eastern companies are also looking at other geographies to invest in new refinery capacity, as they are keen to tap into growing global demand for petrochemical products. South and Southeast Asia and Africa will be key beneficiaries of such Middle Eastern investments.
Africa will see the highest growth in refinery expansion on the back of a low base, as the region tries to move away from imports and be self-sufficient. Many such refinery programs are expected to get strong local government support in Africa. North America will see large expansion and upgrade programs, as it tries to accommodate more shale oil in its refineries and also cater to export markets of Europe and Asia. Russia and CIS are expanding refineries to cater to the main export market of Europe and Asia.
The market will see headwinds in the form of increased penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), which will decrease fuel demand as well as pollution concerns, which will see a shift away from diesel and other polluting fuels. Many countries and cities are expected to completely eliminate or limit fossil fuel vehicles and replace them with EVs. The move toward stricter emission requirements for diesel gensets is expected to lead to the installation of more gas-based gensets. Increasing usage of biodiesel and alternative types of fuel will impact oil consumption, as countries move toward more green fuels. We expect the market to grow from 99.7 million barrels per day in 2018 to nearly 106.5 million barrels per day in 2023, at a CAGR of 1.3%.
This study addresses the future and present market opportunities across the globe, as well as challenges faced in a rapidly changing environment. It forecasts refinery expansion as well as provides regional splits for refinery growth. Market metrics are provided for the United States and Canada, Latin America, Africa, Europe, Russia and CIS, the Middle East, China, and other APAC countries.
Key Issues Addressed
- What is the status of the global refining market? Which are the emerging regions?
- Which are the regions where new capacity additions are taking place?
- What are some of the various trends impacting the global refining market?
- How much new capacity is coming online and in which regions?
- What are the investment trends in the global refining market?