After a very low pace of growth in 2018, the weakest since 2009, the global economy is set for a marginal recovery in 2020, especially driven by emerging markets. Global growth is expected to pick up from 2.9% in 2019 to 3.2% in 2020. Subdued growth is expected for advanced economies, while emerging market and developing economies should register growth acceleration.
Trade wars and Brexit were the top developments that dominated the 2019 growth story, and these events will continue to have major ramifications in 2020 as well. A lot of uncertainty has cleared up in regards to Brexit after the UK’s Conservative Party secured a majority in the 2019 elections. The United Kingdom is set to leave the EU on 31 January 2020, after which a transition period will set in. The finalization of a Phase 1 US-China trade deal in December 2019 has helped lift sentiment globally. Intensification of the trade war between the 2 countries is now less likely in 2020, while a ceasefire trade war scenario is the most probable for 2020.
Top growth opportunities by region—covering North America, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific—have also been assessed as part of this research. In regards to North America for instance, while trade wars are seen to be denting the US economy, Canada appears to be benefitting from exports. Similarly, Southeast Asia’s position as a manufacturing destination is also growing as companies relocate production from China to the region order to circumvent punitive tariffs.
The regional economic outlook analysis as part of this research delves into the GDP growth outlook for major economies, key economic developments, risks, and policy direction. Advanced economies such as the United States and Japan are expected to continue to experience a slowdown in 2020, while emerging markets such as Brazil and Mexico should see growth acceleration in this year. Growth prospects in 2020 for both the United States and China have marginally improved following finalization of the Phase 1 trade deal.
Key Issues Addressed
- What are the top global economic predictions for 2020?
- What are the different trade war scenario possibilities for 2020?
- What impact will Brexit have on the United Kingdom and the Eurozone in 2020?
- Will oil prices rise or fall in 2020?
- What are the key economic risks that businesses should watch out for in 2020?
- What key 2020 growth opportunities should firms look to tap into?
- What impact will developments such as the Phase 1 trade deal and Fed rate cuts have on the US and other economies?
- What is the 2020 growth outlook for advanced economies such as the United States, Germany, and Japan?
- How will emerging market heavyweights such as China and India perform in 2020?