Electrification in Commercial Vehicles (CV) will increase globally with the framing of strict emission regulations. The growing electric CV market will open up opportunities for new technologies and components that drive the vehicle. This study provides an overview of the key technology trends in electric drive train component market and also provides the component market revenue forecast between 2018 and 2030. Several architectures and types of drive train components in electric CV are studied in brief. Frost & Sullivan analysts predict that the electric drive train market for CV will reach $44.72 billion in revenue in 2030 globally, growing at a CAGR of 17.7% between 2018 and 2030. This research study covers battery, motors, inverters, and wiring harness used in electric CVs.
China will clearly dominate, with approximately 64.8% share of the global market by 2030, driven mainly by aggressive incentive structures for electric vehicles, technology readiness, and the installation of recharging stations in large scale. Europe and North America are expected to be the next largest markets after China, with more number of product line-ups planned by native manufacturers.
Batteries will be the largest segment by value, with revenue crossing $40.82 billion by 2030. With the increasing demand for batteries, the price is expected to fall to below $100 per KWh by 2030 and the lower battery cost will make the trucks commercially viable for fleets. CVs will largely adopt the Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) battery chemistry due to high discharge capacities and optimal pricing. Mostly, light-duty trucks follow central motor architecture and medium- and heavy-duty trucks follow the wheel hub architecture, that will adopt in-wheel architecture in the future. Permanent magnet motors will be widely used in small GVWR segments and induction motors will be preferred in large GVWR segments. Switched reluctance motors will gain popularity after 2025. The xEV motor market’s revenue is estimated to be $2.46 billion in 2030, with China leading the market.
Power electronics is another large segment in the EV component market. Silicon Carbide (SiC) and Gallium Nitride (GaN) semiconductors will be preferred over silicon semiconductors for improved performance and packaging benefits in designing inverters. The inverter market is estimated to grow to $1.32 billion in 2030 from $0.28 billion in 2018. Single and multicore wire harness made from aluminium or copper alloys with high-end fluoro rubber insulation will be the key technologies to address high-voltage safety and durability at higher voltages. OEMs are looking for new wiring harness technologies that help in weight reduction. Frost and Sullivan forecasts the wiring harness market to be $130 million in 2030.
Along with technology acquisition, intense competition is foreseen among component manufacturers to adopt technologies and gain market share. With the increasing potential, OEMs will soon start manufacturing the components in-house, rather than sourcing from Tier-1 manufacturers. With growing demand for electric trucks and buses, the component industries in Europe and China are expanding their production goals and investment strategies, as the market value is expected to be more than $44.72 billion by 2030.