As per current cost, the market will be at a tipping point in 2022 when a battery electric vehicle will have almost the same cost as a fuel vehicle, which means electric vehicle can be selected on an equal footing, and when electric vehicles will see an expanding share of the automotive market.
In 2018, 2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide, and the sales figure will surge to 4 million units in 2020, 12 million units in 2025 and 21 million units in 2030 with the cuts in production costs.
By 2030, battery electric vehicles will account for 70% of electric vehicles. Amid the burgeoning sales of electric vehicles, the sales volume of fuel vehicles will stabilize, and start to take a nosedive from 2024.
Policies will serve as a stimulus for the electric vehicle industry in a long period of time, and the fuel economy and emission standards of the world’s major automotive markets have been finalized. To be in line with these mandatory measures (for example, the EU vehicle carbon dioxide emission goal), the electric vehicle market will evolve fleetly. Plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles will make up 10% of the global vehicle sales volume by 2025, and 22% by 2030, of which battery electric vehicles will command more than half of the total EV sales.
As the US and European governments vigorously promote the development of electric vehicle technology, China will become the main battlefield for EV makers in the next two decades. Up to date, China’s electric vehicle industry has passed through incubation, and the Chinese government is downsizing subsidies for EV purchase and will completely terminate the subsidy in 2020. The demand may be somewhat suppressed in the next two years, but then it will resume strong growth with the advent of the era of economical electric vehicles. In 2025, China’s EV sales will reach 5 million units, a 20% share of China’s automobile sales. By 2040, China’s EV sales will occupy 68% of the global automobile sales.
At present, battery energy density and safety are still the primary factors restricting the development of electric vehicles. Nowadays, common electric vehicle on the market only has the mileage endurance of 300-500 km, which will be raised in the next eight to ten years thanks to constantly updated new technology for power batteries during 2020-2030, such as lithium air, alternative metal ion chemicals, solid state battery technology and high energy capacitors.
In terms of charging technology, the next-generation 800V battery electric vehicle will feature a longer recharge mileage and a shorter charging time. The 240-400KW ultra-high-speed charging piles will greatly shorten the charging time.
Global and China Electric Vehicle (BEV, PHEV) Industry Report, 2019-2025 by ResearchInChina focuses on the following:
- Major policies about electric vehicle industry in China;
- Sales volume of electric vehicles, competitive pattern and development trend worldwide;
- Sales volume of electric vehicles, competitive pattern and development trend in China;
- Production and sale and competitive landscape of electric vehicle market segments in China, involving electric passenger vehicle (BEV, PHEV), electric bus (BEV, PHEV), and electric logistics vehicle;
- Electric vehicle industry chain in China, covering charging pile, battery, motor, inverter, and IGBT;
- Status quo, production bases, capacity, planning for vehicle models, development strategies, etc. of key Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers.