The market demand for transmission, one of essential automotive powertrain parts, has direct bearing on the evolution of the automobile industry. In 2018, China’s production and sales of automobiles were down by 4.2% and 2.8% to 27.809 million units and 28.081 million units respectively according to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), which was caused by the discontinued preferential purchase tax policy, the slowdown in economic growth, the trade war between China and America and lower consumer confidence. China’s demand for transmissions consequently dropped by 4.2% year on year to 27.809 million sets (the rare aftermarket demand is negligible in the report) in 2018. The country’s transmission demand will rise at a slower rate along with the slowing growth in automobile consumption, expectedly reaching 30.22 million sets in 2023, at a CAGR of 1.7% between 2018 and 2023.
Market structure: in China, automotive transmissions are primarily divided into manual transmission (MT) (including semi-automatic transmission) and automatic transmission (AT), with the latter further classified into stepped transmission (AT/AMT/DCT) and continuously variable transmission (CVT). MT, AT and AMT, all applicable to both passenger cars and commercial vehicles, took up 41.4%, 26.4% and 1.5% of the market in 2018, respectively; DCT and CVT, often assembled in passenger cars, occupied a 14.0% and 14.7% market share in the same year, separately.
Competitive pattern: like other key auto parts, the automotive transmission market remains stable because of technical solution features and traditional cooperative mechanism. In the CVT market, Japan’s JATCO and Aisin AW are dominant globally with Japanese and American auto brands’ preference to them, while Chinese players Zhejiang Wanliyang and Hunan Jianglu & Rongda Vehicle Transmission serve mainly local brands like Chery; in the DCT field, with core technologies originating from Luk (a member of the Schaeffler Group) and BorgWarner, DCT is widely used in European and American cars (Volkswagen, Ford, etc.), while homegrown BYD and SAIC achieve in-house supply via co-development; AT suppliers include Japanese Aisin AW and JATCO (AT for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles), Allison (AT for heavy commercial vehicles), and German ZF (AT for passenger cars and light/heavy commercial vehicles), compared with self-supply of Chinese peers like Geely. Despite a certain improvement in their transmissions after years of development, Chinese suppliers still cannot replace their foreign counterparts due to a large gap in the aspects of strength, precision and vibration noise of transmission gear, and the inertia of supply is also at play, making supply substitution impossible in short run.
Global and China Automotive Transmission Industry Report, 2018-2023 by ResearchInChina highlights the following:
- Automotive Transmission Industry Overview (definition, classification, technical features, development tendencies, industrial policy, etc.);
- Development of automobile industry in China and the world (auto production and sales, etc.);
- Global automotive transmission market (installations, market structure, the market size and competitive landscape of AT, MT, CVT, DCT, etc.);
- Chinese automotive transmission market (installations, market structure, competitive pattern, etc.);
- Passenger car transmission market in China (installations, market structure, the market size and competitive landscape of AT, MT, CVT, DCT, etc.);
- Commercial vehicle transmission market in China (installations, market structure, and the market size and competitive landscape of AT, MT, AMT, etc.);
- 26 foreign and Chinese companies like Jatco, Aisin Seiki, BorgWarner, ZF, Schaeffler, Hyundai Transys, Zhejiang Wanliyang, Chongqing Tsingshan Industrial, Shaanxi Fast Auto Drive, and Shanghai Automobile Gear Works (profile, financials, production and sales, pillar products, supply relation, distribution of manufacturing bases, the latest developments, among others.