Table of Content

1 INTRODUCTION 10
1.1 COVID-19 HEALTH ASSESSMENT 10
1.2 COVID-19 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 12
1.3 COVID-19 IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY?SCENARIO ASSESSMENT 13

2 COVID-19: DEVELOPMENT OF VACCINES 16
2.1 VACCINES 16
2.1.1 CURRENT PIPELINE OF VACCINES 16
2.1.2 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE (TOP PLAYERS DEVELOPING VACCINES) 20
2.1.2.1 Viewpoint on the COVID-19 pipeline 22
2.1.3 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 29
2.1.3.1 Drivers 29
2.1.3.1.1 Increasing prevalence of infectious diseases 29
2.1.3.1.2 Growing funding for vaccine development 30
2.1.3.2 Restraints 30
2.1.3.2.1 High cost of vaccine development 30
2.1.3.2.2 Drugs and alternate therapies under development 31
2.1.3.2.3 Compassionate use 31
2.1.3.2.4 Immunization strategies 32
2.1.3.3 New opportunities 32
2.1.3.3.1 Collaborations among global organizations and vaccine manufacturers 32
2.1.3.4 Challenges 33
2.1.3.4.1 Herd immunity 33
2.1.4 POST-COVID-19 VACCINE APPROVAL SCENARIO 33
2.1.4.1 Challenges in vaccine approval/production/supply 33
2.1.4.1.1 Are companies taking enough advantage of artificial intelligence (AI) to fast track vaccine/drug approval? (medium criticality) 33
2.1.4.1.2 Can production for pandemics be a challenge?
(high criticality) 34
2.1.4.1.3 The world needs a vaccine but who needs it the most?(medium criticality) 34
2.1.4.1.4 Global organizations are expediting clinical research, but will site and logistical challenges cause delays?
(high criticality) 35
2.1.4.2 Strategies to overcome challenges 35
2.1.4.2.1 Collaborations among global organizations 35
2.1.4.2.2 Establishing reliable supply chains 35
2.1.4.2.3 Historic examples (SARS, MERS, EBOLA, and H1N1) 36
2.1.4.2.4 Supply and demand issues during H1N1 vaccination 38
2.1.4.2.5 Challenges in supply projections 38
2.1.4.2.6 Recommendations from the H1N1 vaccination program 38
2.1.4.2.7 Strategies adopted by several pharmaceutical companies to combat the H1N1 pandemic 38
2.1.4.2.8 Historic examples 39
2.1.4.2.9 New strategies 39
2.1.4.3 COVID-19 VACCINES MARKET (OPTIMISTIC, PESSIMISTIC,
AND REALISTIC) 40
2.1.4.3.1 Market size estimation for optimistic scenario 40
2.1.4.3.2 Market size estimation for realistic scenario 41
2.1.4.3.3 Market size estimation for pessimistic scenario 41

3 COVID-19: DEVELOPMENT OF THERAPEUTIC DRUGS 42
3.1 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE (DRUGS MARKET) 42
3.1.1 TOP PLAYERS INVOLVED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRUGS FOR COVID-19 42
3.1.1.1 Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals 42
3.1.1.2 Oncoimmune 42
3.1.1.3 Gilead Sciences 42
3.1.1.4 Sanofi and the National Institute of Respiratory Diseases (Mexico) 42
3.1.1.5 Roche 42
3.1.1.6 CytoDyn 42
3.1.1.7 Merck KGaA 42
3.1.1.8 Janssen Pharmaceuticals 43
3.1.1.9 Masterlek 43
3.1.1.10 Fujifilm 43
3.1.1.11 Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP 43
3.1.1.12 AbbVie 43
3.1.1.13 Viewpoint on COVID-19 therapeutic drug pipeline 43
3.1.1.14 Impact of COVID-19 on other products in the portfolio/other under-development products 54
3.1.2 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 56
3.1.2.1 Drivers 56
3.1.2.1.1 Alternate therapies targeting COVID-19 56
3.1.2.1.2 Adoption of organ-on-chip models in the development of drugs targeting COVID-19 56
3.1.2.1.3 Compassionate use 57
3.1.2.1.4 Collaborations and other developments promoting COVID-19 drugs 57
3.1.2.2 Restraints 58
3.1.2.2.1 Herd immunity and new vaccines under development 58
3.1.2.2.2 Uncertainty in the efficacy and side effects of repurposed malaria drugs targeting COVID-19 58
3.1.2.3 New opportunities 59
3.1.2.3.1 Adoption of new tools to expedite drug discovery 59
3.1.2.3.2 Investments in real-world evidence by pharmaceutical companies 59
3.1.2.4 Trends 60
3.1.2.4.1 Changes in IPR to promote the supply of essential drugs and medical supplies 60
3.1.3 POST COVID-19 DRUG APPROVAL SCENARIO 60
3.1.3.1 Challenges in drug approval/production/supply 60
3.1.3.1.1 In the case of treatments being available for COVID-19, will they be available to the people in need? (high criticality) 60
3.1.3.1.2 Orphan drug status, market exclusivity – boon or bane? (medium criticality) 61
3.1.3.1.3 The world needs drugs targeting COVID-19, but who needs them the most? (high criticality) 61
3.1.3.2 Strategies to overcome challenges 61
3.1.3.2.1 Production turbocharge of COVID-19 hopeful drugs 61
3.1.3.2.2 Accelerated approvals 61
3.1.3.2.3 Drug manufacturers initiating programs to increase the market access of COVID-19 drugs 62
3.1.3.2.4 Historic examples (SARS, MERS, EBOLA, and H1N1) 62
3.1.3.2.5 New strategies 62
3.1.3.3 Strategies to ramp up production at pandemic level 63
3.1.3.3.1 Establishing stable supply chains to ramp up production of drugs 63
3.1.3.3.2 Creating external manufacturing networks 63
3.1.4 COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET ESTIMATION 64
3.1.4.1 Epidemiology model (assumption basis) 64
3.1.4.2 COVID-19 drugs market (optimistic, realistic, & pessimistic scenarios) 65
3.1.4.2.1 Market size estimation for optimistic scenario 65
3.1.4.2.2 Market size estimation for realistic scenario 65
3.1.4.2.3 Market size estimation for pessimistic scenario 66



List of Figures



FIGURE 1 COVID-19 THE GLOBAL PROPAGATION 10
FIGURE 2 COVID-19 PROPAGATION: SELECT COUNTRIES 11
FIGURE 3 COUNTRIES BEGIN WITH SIMILAR TRAJECTORIES BUT CURVES DEVIATE BASED ON MEASURES TAKEN 12
FIGURE 4 REVISED GDP FORECASTS FOR SELECT G20 COUNTRIES IN 2020 12
FIGURE 5 CRITERIA IMPACTING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 13
FIGURE 6 SCENARIOS IN TERMS OF RECOVERY OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 14
FIGURE 7 PIPELINE OF COVID-19 VACCINE CANDIDATES, BY TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM 23
FIGURE 8 COVID-19 VACCINE DEVELOPERS, BY TYPE AND GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION 25
FIGURE 9 COVID-19 IMPACT ON VACCINE SUPPLY 28
FIGURE 10 EPIDEMIOLOGY MODEL (ASSUMPTION BASIS) 40
FIGURE 11 MOLECULES TARGETING COVID-19, BY CLINICAL PHASE 44
FIGURE 12 MAJOR LOCATIONS WHERE CLINICAL TRIALS ARE BEING CONDUCTED 45
FIGURE 13 SHARE OF MAJOR MOLECULAR ENTITIES UNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR COVID-19 45
FIGURE 14 SHARE OF MOLECULES UNDER PRECLINICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR COVID-19 46
FIGURE 15 SHARE OF REPURPOSED DRUGS VS. NEW ENTITIES 46

 

List of Tables



TABLE 1 PIPELINE OF VACCINES FOR THE TREATMENT OF COVID-19 16
TABLE 2 INCIDENCE OF COVID-19 IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES 30
TABLE 3 MAJOR INTERVENTIONAL VACCINE MANUFACTURING EFFORTS 37
TABLE 4 COVID-19 VACCINES MARKET, BY REGION, 2022–2025 (USD MILLION) 40
TABLE 5 COVID-19 VACCINES MARKET, BY REGION, 2022–2025 (USD MILLION) 41
TABLE 6 COVID-19 VACCINES MARKET, BY REGION, 2022–2025 (USD MILLION) 41
TABLE 7 COVID-19 THERAPEUTIC DRUG PIPELINE (CLINICAL) 47
TABLE 8 NOTABLE FIRST-TIME US APPROVAL DECISIONS PENDING IN MARCH 2020 54
TABLE 9 SUPPLEMENTARY AND OTHER NOTABLE APPROVAL DECISIONS PENDING IN MARCH 2020 54
TABLE 10 NOTABLE FIRST-TIME US APPROVAL DECISIONS DUE IN APRIL 2020 55
TABLE 11 OTHER NOTABLE APPROVAL DECISIONS TO BE TAKEN IN APRIL 2020 56
TABLE 12 COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET, BY REGION, 2020–2025 (USD MILLION) 65
TABLE 13 COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET, BY REGION, 2020–2025 (USD MILLION) 65
TABLE 14 COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET, BY REGION, 2020–2025 (USD MILLION) 66