Table of Content

Table of Contents
i. COVID-19. Strategic Situation Analysis .............................................................................21
ii. COVID-19. Guidance for Executives ...............................................................................23
iii. COVID-19. Guidance for Management Consultants and Investment Advisors..........25

1. Introduction and Market Definition ...................................................................................26
1.1 What are Pandemics? ........................................................................................................... 27
1.2 The Role of Zoonosis ............................................................................................................... 29
1.3 Market Definition .................................................................................................................... 32
1.3.1 Revenue Market Size........................................................................................................ 32
1.3.2 Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................................. 33
1.3.3 Tourism - Hotels ................................................................................................................. 33
1.3.4 Tourism - Ground .............................................................................................................. 34
1.3.5 Tourism - Air ....................................................................................................................... 34
1.3.6 Tourism - Cruise ................................................................................................................. 35
1.3.7 Tourism - Other.................................................................................................................. 35
1.3.8 Medical - Therapeutic...................................................................................................... 35
1.3.9 Medical - Diagnostic........................................................................................................ 36
1.3.10 Medical - PPE .................................................................................................................. 36
1.4 Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 36
1.4.1 Authors .............................................................................................................................. 37
1.4.2 Sources .............................................................................................................................. 37
1.5 Historical Perspective on Pandemics.................................................................................... 38
1.5.1 HIV/AIDS PANDEMIC 2005-2012....................................................................................... 38
1.5.2 FLU PANDEMIC 1968 ......................................................................................................... 38
1.5.3 ASIAN FLU 1956-1958 ........................................................................................................ 39
1.5.4 SPANISH FLU 1918.............................................................................................................. 39
1.5.5 SIXTH CHOLERA PANDEMIC 1910-1911 ........................................................................... 40
1.5.6 FLU PANDEMIC 1889-1890 ................................................................................................ 40
1.5.7 THE BLACK DEATH 1346-1353 ........................................................................................... 41

2. The Pandemic Overview....................................................................................................43
2.1 What is a Virus? ....................................................................................................................... 44
2.1.1 Is a Virus Alive?.................................................................................................................. 44
2.1.2 Viral Structure.................................................................................................................... 45
2.1.3 The Viral Genome ............................................................................................................ 47
2.1.4 Viral Mutation ................................................................................................................... 47
2.2 The Coronavirus ...................................................................................................................... 49
2.2.1 Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) .................................................................... 50
2.2.2 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) ...................................................................... 51
2.2.3 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)............................................................................ 52
2.2.3.1 Signs and symptoms................................................................................................. 55
2.2.3.2 Cause ........................................................................................................................ 56
2.2.3.3 Diagnosis ................................................................................................................... 57
2.2.3.4 Prevention ................................................................................................................. 58
2.2.3.5 Management ........................................................................................................... 59
2.2.3.6 Prognosis ................................................................................................................... 60
2.2.3.7 Epidemiology............................................................................................................ 60
2.2.3.10 Misinformation about the outbreak...................................................................... 61
2.3 Pandemic Diagnostics ........................................................................................................... 62
2.3.1 Risk Management – Spark and Spread .......................................................................... 62
2.3.2 Dx Technology – Genomic and WGS Role .................................................................... 63
2.3.3 Dx Technology - Immunoassay ....................................................................................... 63
2.3.4 Dx Technology - Other ..................................................................................................... 64
2.3.5 Time to Market and Preparedness Issues........................................................................ 65
2.4 Therapeutics............................................................................................................................ 66
2.4.1 Vaccine............................................................................................................................. 66
2.4.2 Dual Role of Vaccines...................................................................................................... 67
2.4.2 Antiviral.............................................................................................................................. 68

3. COVID-19 Scenarios ...........................................................................................................70
3.1 Scenarios Overview................................................................................................................ 71
3.2 Scenario 1. Limited Spread & Early Vaccine....................................................................... 72
3.3 Scenario 2. Contained Spread & Midterm Vaccine .......................................................... 74
3.4 Scenario 3. Uncontained Spread & Late Vaccine ............................................................. 76

4. Recent Developments .......................................................................................................78
4.1 Recent Developments – Importance and How to Use This Section................................... 79
4.1.1 Importance of These Developments .............................................................................. 79
4.1.2 How to Use This Section.................................................................................................... 79
Novavax Advances Development of Novel COVID-19 Vaccine ............................................ 79
COVID-19 Causes Air Travel to Fall for first time in 11 Years ...................................................... 80
Steep Drop In Chinese Air Travel Demand................................................................................. 82
New Tech Could Make Coronavirus Vaccine in Record Time ................................................. 84
Coronavirus Detection Test Development by Co-Diagnostics................................................. 89
Diagnosing coronavirus in the lab .............................................................................................. 91
Veredus Lab develops test for coronavirus detection .............................................................. 92
U.S. Pork Producers fear Pandemic ............................................................................................ 95
First New HIV Strain in 19 Years Identified ................................................................................... 97
Flu-Like Epidemic Could Kill 80 Mn Globally ............................................................................... 99
Nipah Virus a Global Threat....................................................................................................... 102
New DRC Ebola cases confirmed as FDA OKs rapid test........................................................ 104
Ontera Awarded Contract for Zika Genotyping Test.............................................................. 106
Two New Members Join Global Diagnostics Network............................................................. 107
BARDA Funding Health Security Solutions ................................................................................ 109

5. Profiles of Key Players .......................................................................................................111
5.1 Key Players - Therapeutics ................................................................................................... 112
The Medicines Company .......................................................................................................... 112
Melinta Therapeutics.................................................................................................................. 113
Arsanis.......................................................................................................................................... 114
Westway Health.......................................................................................................................... 115
Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals .................................................................................................... 116
BioVersys GmbH ......................................................................................................................... 117
Nabriva Therapeutics................................................................................................................. 118
Macrolide Pharmaceuticals ...................................................................................................... 119
Nemesis Bioscience.................................................................................................................... 120
C3J Therapeutics, Inc................................................................................................................. 121
EpiBiome...................................................................................................................................... 122
discuva........................................................................................................................................ 123
AmpliPhi Biosciences.................................................................................................................. 125
Pherecydes Pharma................................................................................................................... 127
Micreos........................................................................................................................................ 128
Procarta Biosystems.................................................................................................................... 129
Lumavita ..................................................................................................................................... 131
Madam Therapeutics................................................................................................................. 132
Priaxon......................................................................................................................................... 133
Biolytx Pharmaceuticals............................................................................................................. 134
AntibioTx ...................................................................................................................................... 135
Xellia Pharmaceuticals .............................................................................................................. 136
Paratek Pharmaceuticals .......................................................................................................... 137
Synereca Pharmaceuticals ....................................................................................................... 138
Allecra Therapeutics .................................................................................................................. 139
Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ................................................................................................... 140
Demuris........................................................................................................................................ 141
Prommune................................................................................................................................... 142
Biosergen..................................................................................................................................... 144
Innovation Pharmaceuticals ..................................................................................................... 145
Aviragen Therapeutics............................................................................................................... 146
Achillion Pharmaceuticals ......................................................................................................... 147
ImmunNovative Developments, S.L.......................................................................................... 148
Achaogen, Inc. .......................................................................................................................... 149
SelectX Pharmaceuticals, Inc.................................................................................................... 150
TaiGen Biotechnology Co., Ltd. ................................................................................................ 152
Theravance Biopharma ............................................................................................................. 153
Abbvie......................................................................................................................................... 155
KYORIN Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd............................................................................................... 157
Iterum Therapeutics Limited ...................................................................................................... 158
Forge Therapeutics..................................................................................................................... 159
Alopexx Vaccine LLC................................................................................................................. 160
Integrated Biotherapeutics ....................................................................................................... 161
Hennepin Life Sciences.............................................................................................................. 162
Fedora Pharmaceuticals Inc. .................................................................................................... 163
Contrafect Corporation............................................................................................................. 164
Basilea Pharmaceutica Ltd. ...................................................................................................... 165
AiCuris.......................................................................................................................................... 167
RedHill Biopharma ...................................................................................................................... 168
Redx Pharma Plc/ Redx Anti Infectives Ltd. ............................................................................. 170
ABAC Therapeutics .................................................................................................................... 171
Alaxia SAS.................................................................................................................................... 172
Antabio S.A.S .............................................................................................................................. 173
Auspherix Ltd............................................................................................................................... 174
Centauri Therapeutics Ltd ......................................................................................................... 175
Combioxin SA ............................................................................................................................. 176
Da Volterra.................................................................................................................................. 178
Debiopharm International SA.................................................................................................... 179
Deinobiotics/Deinove ................................................................................................................ 180
Destiny Pharma plc .................................................................................................................... 181
Eligo Bioscience.......................................................................................................................... 183
Helperby Therapeutics Ltd......................................................................................................... 184
Karveel Pharmaceuticals........................................................................................................... 185
MaaT Pharma ............................................................................................................................. 186
Motif BioSciences, Inc / Motif Bio PLC....................................................................................... 187
Mutabilis SAS ............................................................................................................................... 189
Neem Biotech Ltd....................................................................................................................... 191
Northern Antibiotics Oy (Ltd) ..................................................................................................... 192
Nosopharm ................................................................................................................................. 193
NovaBiotics Ltd ........................................................................................................................... 194
Phico Therapeutics Ltd............................................................................................................... 195
Polyphor Ltd ................................................................................................................................ 197
QureTech Bio AB......................................................................................................................... 198
SetLance srl ................................................................................................................................. 199
Ultupharma AB ........................................................................................................................... 200
Vaxdyn ........................................................................................................................................ 201
Vibiosphen .................................................................................................................................. 202
Bioaster........................................................................................................................................ 203
Vivexia ......................................................................................................................................... 204
KBP Biosciences .......................................................................................................................... 205
Absynth Biologics........................................................................................................................ 206
Spero Therapeutics..................................................................................................................... 207
Merck........................................................................................................................................... 209
Symphogen................................................................................................................................. 211
Warp Drive Bio ............................................................................................................................ 212
Johnson & Johnson (Janssen) ................................................................................................... 214
Pfizer ............................................................................................................................................ 216
Allergan....................................................................................................................................... 218
GlaxoSmithKline .......................................................................................................................... 220
Novartis........................................................................................................................................ 221
Gilead Sciences ......................................................................................................................... 223
AstraZeneca ............................................................................................................................... 225
Sanofi........................................................................................................................................... 227
Shionogi Inc................................................................................................................................. 229
Cipla ............................................................................................................................................ 231
DSM Sinochem Pharmaceuticals.............................................................................................. 232
Wockhardt Ltd. ........................................................................................................................... 233
VenatoRx Pharmaceuticals....................................................................................................... 234
MicuRx ......................................................................................................................................... 236
Entasis Therapeutics ................................................................................................................... 237
Merlion Pharmaceuticals ........................................................................................................... 238
Aridis Pharmaceuticals Inc. ....................................................................................................... 239
5.2 Key Players - Diagnostics...................................................................................................... 240
Abbott Diagnostics..................................................................................................................... 240
Accelerate Diagnostics ............................................................................................................. 242
Ador Diagnostics ........................................................................................................................ 243
Akkoni Biosystems ....................................................................................................................... 244
Alveo Technologies.................................................................................................................... 245
Applied BioCode........................................................................................................................ 246
Atlas Genetics............................................................................................................................. 248
Aus Diagnostics........................................................................................................................... 249
BD Diagnostics ............................................................................................................................ 251
Biocartis ....................................................................................................................................... 253
BioFire Diagnostics...................................................................................................................... 254
bioMérieux .................................................................................................................................. 256
Bio-Rad Laboratories.................................................................................................................. 257
Bosch Healthcare Solutions GmbH ........................................................................................... 259
Cepheid ...................................................................................................................................... 260
Co-Diagnostics ........................................................................................................................... 262
Cue Health.................................................................................................................................. 263
Curetis.......................................................................................................................................... 264
Diagenode Diagnostics ............................................................................................................. 266
Diascopic .................................................................................................................................... 267
Diasorin........................................................................................................................................ 268
Expedeon.................................................................................................................................... 269
Fusion Genomics. ....................................................................................................................... 270
GenePOC Diagnostics............................................................................................................... 272
GenMark Dx................................................................................................................................ 274
Hologic ........................................................................................................................................ 275
Immunexpress ............................................................................................................................. 277
Inflammatix ................................................................................................................................. 278
Invetech ...................................................................................................................................... 279
Janssen Diagnostics ................................................................................................................... 280
Karius ........................................................................................................................................... 281
Lexigene...................................................................................................................................... 282
Luminex ....................................................................................................................................... 283
Mbio Diagnostics ........................................................................................................................ 285
Meridian Bioscience................................................................................................................... 286
Mesa Biotech .............................................................................................................................. 288
Mobidiag..................................................................................................................................... 289
Nanomix ...................................................................................................................................... 290
Oxford Nanopore ....................................................................................................................... 291
Panagene ................................................................................................................................... 293
Primerdesign ............................................................................................................................... 294
Prominex...................................................................................................................................... 295
Qiagen (Statdx) .......................................................................................................................... 296
Quantumdx................................................................................................................................. 298
Quidel.......................................................................................................................................... 299
Roche Molecular Diagnostics ................................................................................................... 301
Saw Diagnostics.......................................................................................................................... 304
Seegene...................................................................................................................................... 306
Sensovation................................................................................................................................. 307
Siemens Healthineers (Fast Track Diagnostics)......................................................................... 308
COVID-19 Economic Impacts and Forecasts Page | 14
HOWE SOUND RESEARCH
SkylineDx...................................................................................................................................... 315
Sona Nanotech .......................................................................................................................... 316
T2 Biosystems............................................................................................................................... 318
Thermo Fisher .............................................................................................................................. 319
Veradus Labs .............................................................................................................................. 321
Veramarx .................................................................................................................................... 321

6. COVID-19 Economic Impact on Gross Domestic Product...........................................323
6.1 Economic Impact Overview by Country............................................................................ 324
6.1.1 Table – Economic Impact by Country Scenario 1....................................................... 324
6.1.2 Chart – Economic Impact by Country Scenario 1 ...................................................... 325
6.1.3 Table – Economic Impact by Country Scenario 2....................................................... 326
6.1.4 Chart – Economic Impact by Country Scenario 2 ...................................................... 327
6.1.5 Table – Economic Impact by Country Scenario 3....................................................... 328
6.1.6 Chart – Economic Impact by Country Scenario 3 ...................................................... 329
6.2 Tourism Global Market by Segment - Overview ................................................................ 330
6.2.1 Table – Tourism Global Market by Segment and Scenario......................................... 330
6.2.2 Chart – Tourism Global Market by Segment and Scenario – 2019/2024 Comparison
.................................................................................................................................................. 331
6.2.3 Chart – Tourism Global Market by Segment and Scenario – 2019............................. 332
6.2.4 Chart – Tourism Global Market by Segment and Scenario –2024.............................. 333
6.2.5 Chart – Tourism Global Market by Segment and Scenario – Share by Year............. 334
6.3 Medical Global Market by Segment and Scenario - Overview....................................... 335
6.3.1 Table – Medical Global Market by Segment and Scenario ....................................... 335
6.3.2 Chart – Medical Global Market by Segment and Scenario – 2019/2024 Comparison
.................................................................................................................................................. 336
6.3.3 Chart – Medical Global Market by Segment and Scenario – 2019 ........................... 337
6.3.4 Chart – Medical Global Market by Segment and Scenario –2024 ............................ 338
6.3.5 Chart – Medical Global Market by Segment and Scenario – Share by Year ........... 339

7. Tourism Global Markets – By Segment and Scenario ....................................................340
7.1 Hotels ..................................................................................................................................... 341
7.1.1 Table Hotel Market by Scenario and by Country ........................................................ 341
7.1.2 Chart - Hotel Market Growth by Scenario.................................................................... 342
7.2 Ground .................................................................................................................................. 343
7.2.1 Table Ground Market by Scenario and by Country.................................................... 343
7.2.2 Chart - Ground Market Growth by Scenario ............................................................... 344
7.3 Air Travel ................................................................................................................................ 345
7.3.1 Table Air Travel by Scenario and by Country............................................................... 345
7.3.2 Chart – Air Travel Growth by Scenario.......................................................................... 346
7.4 Cruise Market ........................................................................................................................ 347
7.4.1 Table Cruise Market by Scenario and by Country ...................................................... 347
7.4.2 Chart - Cruise Market Growth by Scenario .................................................................. 348
7.5 Other Tourism ........................................................................................................................ 349
7.5.1 Table Other Tourism by Scenario andby Country........................................................ 349
7.5.2 Chart - Other Tourism Growth by Scenario .................................................................. 350

8. Medical Global Markets – By Segment and Scenario...................................................351
8.1 Therapeutic........................................................................................................................... 352
8.1.1 Table Therapeutic Markets by Scenario and by Country ........................................... 352
8.1.2 Chart - Therapeutic Markets Growth by Scenario....................................................... 353
8.2 Diagnostics............................................................................................................................ 354
8.2.1 Table Diagnostics Market Growth by Scenario and by Country................................ 354
8.2.2 Chart - Diagnostics Market Growth by Scenario ......................................................... 355
8.3 PPE ......................................................................................................................................... 356
8.3.1 Table PPE Market by Scenario and by Country........................................................... 356
8.3.2 Chart - PPE Market Growth by Scenario ...................................................................... 357



Table of Tables
Table 1 Who List of Potential Pandemic Pathogens ..................................................................... 44
Table 2 Characteristics of Coronavirus Pandemic Infections ...................................................... 53
Table 3 The Three Scenarios............................................................................................................ 71
Table 4 Scenario 1 Assumptions ..................................................................................................... 72
Table 5 Scenario 1 Country Impact Analysis Table....................................................................... 73
Table 6 Scenario 2 Assumptions ..................................................................................................... 74
Table 7 Scenario 2 Country Impact Analysis Table....................................................................... 75
Table 8 Scenario 3 Assumptions ..................................................................................................... 76
Table 9 Scenario 3 Country Impact Analysis Table....................................................................... 77
Table 10 – Economic Impact by Country Scenario 1 ................................................................. 324
Table 11 – Economic Impact by Country Scenario 2 ................................................................. 326
Table 12 – Economic Impact by Country Scenario 3 ................................................................. 328
Table 13 Tourism Global Market by Segment and Scenario...................................................... 330
Table 14 Medical Global Market by Segment and Scenario .................................................... 335
Table 15 Hotel Market by Scenario and by Country .................................................................. 341
Table 16 Ground Market by Scenario and by Country ............................................................. 343
Table 17 Air Travel by Scenario and by Country ......................................................................... 345
Table 18 HIV Cruise Market by Scenario and by Country .......................................................... 347
Table 19 Other Tourism by Scenario andby Country .................................................................. 349
Table 20 Therapeutic Markets by Scenario and by Country .................................................... 352
Table 21 Diagnostics Market Growth by Scenario and by Country .......................................... 354
Table 22 PPE Market by Scenario and by Country .................................................................... 356

Table of Figures
Figure 1 Global Distribution Pandemic Preparedness .................................................................. 28
Figure 2 Global Pandemic Pathogen Status ................................................................................. 29
Figure 3 Estimated Economic Impact of Viral Pandemic by Region .......................................... 30
Figure 4 Historical Pandemics Infographic .................................................................................... 42
Figure 5 Antigenic Drift Creates a new Strain of Virus .................................................................. 48
Figure 6 Structure of Coronaviruses................................................................................................ 50
Figure 7 2019 Economic Impact Chart Scenario 1 ..................................................................... 325
Figure 8 2019 Economic Impact Chart Scenario 2 ..................................................................... 327
Figure 9 2019 Economic Impact Chart Scenario 3 ..................................................................... 329
Figure 10 Tourism Global Market by Segment and Scenario - 2019 vs. 2024............................ 331
Figure 11 Tourism Global Market by Segment and Scenario 2019 ............................................ 332
Figure 12 Tourism Global Market by Segment 2024 .................................................................... 333
Figure 13 Tourism Global Market by Segment Share by Year .................................................... 334
Figure 14 Medical Global Market by Segment and Scenario - 2019 vs. 2024 .......................... 336
Figure 15 Medical Global Market by Segment and Scenario 2019 .......................................... 337
Figure 16 Medical Global Market by Segment and Scenario 2024 .......................................... 338
Figure 17 Hotel Market Growth by Scenario ............................................................................... 342
Figure 18 Ground Market Growth by Scenario ........................................................................... 344
Figure 19 Air Travel Growth by Scenario ...................................................................................... 346
Figure 20 Cruise Market Growth by Scenario .............................................................................. 348
Figure 21 Other Tourism Growth by Scenario .............................................................................. 350
Figure 22 Therapeutic Market Growth by Scenario .................................................................... 353
Figure 23 Diagnostics Market Growth by Scenario ..................................................................... 355
Figure 24 PPE Market Growth by Scenario .................................................................................. 357