Table of Content

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1. Strait of Hormuz remains critical global economic choke point
1.2. North Africa region vulnerable to further economic turmoil stemming from social unrest
1.3. South China Sea has become big geopolitical threat to world economy

2. STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINS CRITICAL GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHOKE POINT
2.1. Shipping through Strait of Hormuz is now more expensive and dangerous
2.2. Disruption to Strait of Hormuz oil routes would have major impact on global supply
2.3. Strike on Saudi Arabian oil installation ramps up likelihood of damaging conflict
2.4. Impact on global economy of oil supply disruption in Strait of Hormuz would be substantial
2.4.1. Alternative supply routes to improve security are possible but are a long way from happening

3. NORTH AFRICA REGION VULNERABLE TO FURTHER ECONOMIC TURMOIL STEMMING FROM SOCIAL UNREST
3.1. Beset by war and considered a failed state, potential economic growth in Libya is being wasted
3.2. Algeria remains exposed to forces capable of bringing about conflict and severe economic distress
3.3. Discontent is brewing in Egypt, raising prospect of worsening economic outlook

4. SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS BECOME BIG GEOPOLITICAL THREAT TO WORLD ECONOMY
4.1. Militarization of South China Sea exerts pressure on security of vital artery of world economy
4.2. Geopolitics now plays an enlarged role in the South China Sea following expansion of Chinese activities
4.3. Expanding Chinese interests poses risks to busy shipping lanes
4.4. Hong Kong protests have grown into major international incident

5. APPENDIX
5.1. Sources
5.2. Further reading

6. ASK THE ANALYST

7. ABOUT MARKETLINE



List of Figures


Figure 1: Strait of Hormuz
Figure 2: Grace 1
Figure 3: Iranian oil rent 2007 to 2017 (% of GDP)
Figure 4: Top oil producing nations by volume. (millions of barrels per day)
Figure 5: Libya: Occupiers of territory. 16th September 2019
Figure 6: Noureddine Bedoui
Figure 7: Egypt GDP growth 2010 to 2017
Figure 8: Paracel Islands
Figure 9: YJ-12 Anti-Ship Missiles
Figure 10: Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte
Figure 11: Vietnam coast line oil fields
Figure 12: Meng Wanzhou

 

List of Tables