The Bile Duct Cancer Therapeutics Market is Forecast to Decline up to 2019

Wednesday 18 April 2012, Amsterdam

The “Bile Duct Cancer Therapeutics - Pipeline Assessment and Market Forecasts to 2019” report is an essential source of information and analysis on the global bile duct cancer sector. The report identifies the key trends shaping and driving the global bile duct cancer market. The report also provides insights on the prevalent competitive landscape and the emerging players expected to significantly alter the market positioning of the current market leaders. Most importantly, the report provides valuable insights on the pipeline products within the global bile duct cancer sector. This report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by a team of industry experts.

The Bile Duct Cancer Therapeutics Market is Forecast to Decline up to 2019

The report estimates that the global bile duct cancer therapeutics market was worth $120.7m in 2011. It is forecast to decline at a CAGR of 4.6% for the next eight years to reach $112.6m by 2019. The current treatment options for bile duct cancer offer only symptomatic relief and are primarily dominated by generics and off-label drugs. The market declined during 2006-2011 owing to the patent expiry of Gemzar, which is also expected to leave the market vulnerable to generics. The decline during the forecast period can be attributed to the expected patent expiry of Xeloda.

The Bile Duct Cancer Therapeutics Market has Significant Unmet Need

This report has found that the bile duct cancer therapeutics market has significant unmet need due to the limited efficacy and safety profiles of the currently market products. Consequently, there is significant potential for new entrants. The market is currently dominated by generics and off-label drugs. As the currently used chemotherapy regimens are injectable forms, there exists a significant unmet need in terms of compliance. Therefore, there is huge potential for products using new technology with better compliance and reduced adverse effects.

The currently used regimens for bile duct cancer have significant side effect concerns, such as alopecia, fatigue, thrombocytopenia and neutropenia. However, many patients are left with no choice other than the current products, which can provide some degree of disease alleviation. Therefore, the bile duct cancer therapeutics market is attractive, with a significant unmet need for a cure for the underlying cause of the disease. Developing new molecular targeted agents should lead to future blockbusters with the potential to capture major market shares. Consequently, there is a huge need for novel drugs with benefits over the well established existing products.

Scope for Entrants with Better Efficacy and Safety Profiles

The bile duct cancer therapeutics market is underserved by the currently marketed drugs as no drug can provide a complete cure for the disease. The market offers huge potential for new entrants that can introduce drugs that can halt or reverse the disease progression and simultaneously offer good efficacy and safety profiles. There is also huge potential for novel therapies that can offer better symptomatic relief.

Weak Pipeline Provides Limited Hope for the Bile Duct Cancer Market

This analysis found that the bile duct cancer pipeline is weak as the majority of pipeline trials are sponsored by academic institutions and universities. The developmental pipeline for bile duct cancer consists of 23 molecules in different stages of development. All the molecules are first-in-class molecules with novel mechanisms of action compared to the drugs that are currently used for the treatment of bile duct cancer.

Of these 23 molecules, only a small number of novel molecules in the early stage of the clinical pipeline are being developed by companies. The pipeline includes Tyrosine kinase inhibitors, EGFR inhibitors, DNA Synthesis inhibitors, VEGF inhibitors and drugs with other mechanisms. As the majority of molecules are being trialed by universities they are not expected to impact the bile duct cancer therapeutic market in the near future. However, OTS102 from Otsuka and Caprelsa from AstraZeneca, which are undergoing Phase II of clinical development, might have a slight impact on the market during the forecast period.