Global Polyethylene Industry - Emerging Markets in Asia-Pacific to Drive Modest Growth

Wednesday 2 July 2014, Amsterdam

Moderate Growth in the Global Polyethylene Industry

The global polyethylene market is experiencing a period of slow growth as China and India, which are key drivers of demand in the Asia-Pacific region, are witnessing low Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates due to the slowing of the manufacturing sectors and currency decline. This has had an adverse impact upon polyethylene demand and, with lower than historic GDP growth forecast for China and other developing countries in Asia, lower growth in petrochemical product demand is also expected.

Europe, where demand has increased slightly over the last decade, is expected to perform better in the next five years. The market in the US, where prices for natural gas are lower and investment in the petrochemical industry is rising, is forecast to grow due to higher demand from both its domestic and export markets compared with the trend over the last 10 years.

China and Russia are forecast to be the largest contributors to new capacity over the next five years; both are expected to add more than 3.5 million metric tons per year (mmty) of capacity during this period. India will rank third with more than 2.5 mmty of new capacity likely to come on-stream over the next five years.


Asia-Pacific to Continue to Drive Polyethylene Demand

Although emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region have slowed over the last two years, polyethylene demand is still forecast to grow at a faster pace than in other regions and so will continue to drive the industry. Polyethylene demand is forecast to increase by 8.23 mmty in Asia-Pacific, a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.8% over the next five years.Demand in North America, South America, Europe, and the Middle East and Africa is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.4%, 3.3%, 2.8% and 3.7%, respectively. The following figure shows the forecast demand growth rate by region from 2013 to 2018.


China and Russia to Add the Most Capacity through 2018

China and Russia are expected to add the most capacity over the next five years, accounting for 13.1% and 12.5% of global capacity additions. This capacity will be almost entirely in the form of new plants. China is expanding its polyethylene capacity, primarily to satisfy demand from its growing population. The country’s per capita plastics consumption is still significantly lower than in the developed world, providing opportunities for further expansion. Russia is expanding its polyethylene capacity in an effort to enhance its position in the petrochemicals sector and reduce its reliance upon imports.