PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 - Event-Driven Update

Monday 24 March 2014, Amsterdam

Sales for Type 2 Diabetes by Region 2012–2022  

This report focuses on type 2 diabetes pharmaceuticals in seven major markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) and three emerging markets (China, India and Brazil). These 10 markets will be referred to as the global market. The global type 2 diabetes pharmaceutical market in the 2012 base year was $28.1 billion, including both branded and generic drugs. Branded products alone accounted for $19.2 billion across the 10 markets. At 58% of the overall type 2 diabetes market, the US is clearly the dominant market, totaling $16.4 billion in branded and generic pharmaceutical sales. This is due to the much higher prices of pharmaceuticals in this country and due to the high diagnosed prevalence. The next-largest individual market is Japan, at 9% of the worldwide type 2 diabetes market, totaling $2.5 billion. The 5EU countries make up 18%, while emerging markets, including India, China and Brazil together, account for 15% of the total market.

Over the forecast period, emerging markets will grow in size most rapidly, due to a dramatic increase in the prevalence and diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, which are attributed to increased life expectancy and lifestyle changes that have occurred through rapid economic growth. Uptake of branded drugs will also increase in these markets due to fast growth of the middle class. Sales in the US will grow by about 9% per year over the forecast period. The European and Japanese markets will also increase steadily; however, cost constraints inEurope and the slow regulatory process in Japan will slightly limit growth in these regions.

The figure below illustrates the global type 2 diabetes sales for the seven major markets (US, 5EU, and Japan) and three emerging markets (China, India and Brazil) during the forecast period. China will increase its global market share from 9% to 14%, stealing market share predominantly from the 5EU and Japan, which will lose 4% and 3%, respectively.