EpiCast Report: Migraine - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Tuesday 18 February 2014, Amsterdam

Migraine is typically characterized by recurring headaches, throbbing pain on one side of the head along with one or more of the following symptoms: nausea; vomiting; and increased sensitivity to light, sound and smell (Bigal and Lipton, 2006). This disabling neurological disorder can have serious consequences, such as permanent brain damage (Chronicle and Mulleners, 1994; Diener et al., 2006). The lifetime prevalence of migraine in men ranges from 6% in France to 12% in Denmark, and in women ranges from 15% in Germany to 25% in Denmark (Gobel et al., 1994). Because migraine is one of the most prevalent types of headache, there is a substantial economic and social burden associated with the condition worldwide, and it is therefore recognized as a high-priority public health problem by the World Health Organization (WHO) (Leonardi et al., 2005; Lusić, 2001). The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2010 ranks migraine as the first among the neurological disorders (Leonardi and Raggi, 2013).

This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global epidemiological trends for migraine in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). In addition, the report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the total prevalent cases of migraine segmented by age (ages ≥18 years), sex and the number of total prevalent cases of migraine with aura and without aura in these markets. To forecast the total prevalent cases of migraine in the 7MM, epidemiologists selected nationally representative studies that provided the total prevalence of migraine using the second edition of the International Classification of Headache Disorders (ICHD-2) criteria for the US and 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK). For Japan’s forecast, the ICHD-1 criteria were used because the most recently published studies on migraine in Japan used ICHD-1 criteria (ICHD-1, 1988).

As shown in the figure, epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of migraine in the 7MM remained almost the same, with 75,832,518 total prevalent cases in 2013 and 76,377,456 total prevalent cases in 2023, with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.07% in the forecast period. Throughout the forecast period, the US will have the highest number of total prevalent cases of migraine, with 29,610,796 total prevalent cases in 2013 and 31,137,451 total prevalent cases in 2023. Given that migraine typically occurs in young adults, affecting the quality of life and social development of the individuals, early diagnosis and better management of the condition are imperative to combat the global burden and to prevent the progression of the condition to severe stages.