World vaccines market will reach $48bn in 2017

Tuesday 5 November 2013, Amsterdam

This new report predicts the vaccines market will reach $48 billion in 2017, stimulated by increased vaccination of adults and expansion of the therapeutic vaccines segment. The paediatric vaccines submarket made up the majority of revenues in 2012, the report states, but will experience more sedate growth over the next ten years. It will still outperform the pharmaceutical market overall.

World Vaccines Market 2013-2023, published in October 2013, analyses R&D across the vaccines industry, identifying opportunities and leading contenders. It also forecasts revenues from 2013 to 2023 at overall world market, submarket, product and national level. In 2012, Pfizer’s Prevnar and Merck’s Gardasil between them amassed almost $6bn, showing the potential for modern products with high prices, large patient populations, and negligible risk of biosimilar competition.

Dr James Evans, a pharmaceutical industry analyst, said: “The vaccines R&D pipeline is extensive, and there are many new indications addressed by late-stage programmes. Sanofi’s dengue vaccine, for example, is showing promise, and since the WHO has branded dengue as a pandemic threat, that has to be an area to watch. But there are also new vaccines against nosocomial infections, against CMV and against shingles, TB and anthrax. Those last three are existing targets but there’s unmet need for new vaccines there. And, of course, HIV: the 505 study failed in 2013, but there’s still a big pipeline there.

“And there are more than 20 new candidates in late-stage trials in the therapeutic vaccines area, and they’re addressing major unmet needs, including solid tumours. Dendreon has struggled to show the business model can work for autologous cellular vaccines, but a lot of these late-stage products are allogeneic, and ultimately anything that can make real inroads against some of those cancers is going to be a major addition to the market.

“Influenza vaccines form another field where there’s need for new products. Seasonal influenza vaccines performed badly in the 2012-2013 season, with reported shortages, manufacturing problems and inadequate cover against the circulating strains. Quadrivalents, cell-cultured vaccines and other technology will begin to address that next season. Pandemic influenza represents a wildcard too. At the moment H7N9 is calming down, but later this year that strain could be a major concern, and manufacturers are scrambling to get a vaccine in place.”

This study predicts the vaccines market will rise in importance for the pharmaceutical industry during the forecast period, to 2023, with new companies overcoming the high entry barriers to claim opportunities in development, production and sales of vaccines.