Type 2 diabetes in the 10MM expected to reach a total of 327.16 million cases by 2022

Thursday 27 June 2013, Amsterdam

Diabetes is one of the most common non-communicable diseases worldwide and is an escalating public health problem globally, with an estimated 347 million people living with diabetes worldwide (CDC, 2011d; IDF, 2013). Globally, the incidence and prevalence of diabetes are expected to continue to increase due to various factors, such as population growth, aging, urbanization, and the increasing prevalence of risk factors like obesity, unhealthy dietary habits and physical inactivity.

The World Health Organization’s (WHO) estimates for 2010 show that globally, approximately 80% of all diabetes-related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, and that diabetes will likely be the seventh-leading cause of death in the world by 2030 (WHO, 2011; WHO, 2013).

Our epidemiological forecast for prevalent cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes in the 10MM except for Brazil is supported by longitudinal historical data. Historical data are obtained from studies in the respective countries which provide a detailed insight into the epidemiology of the disease in these countries. For Brazil, due to the limited availability of historical data, the most recently reported prevalence proportions were kept constant. Epidemiologists used nationally representative country-specific studies published in peer-reviewed journals or national healthcare databases to forecast prevalent cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes in all of the major markets in this analysis.

Our epidemiologists forecast that in 2012, there were 186.15 million diagnosed prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes in the 10MM, with 154.94 million diagnosed prevalent cases in the US, India and China combined. Diagnosed prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes in the 10MM are c

OUr epidemiological forecast projects a substantial increase in the prevalent cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes in the 10MM. The number of prevalent type 2 diabetic cases is increasing around the world due to the actual increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes, along with the change in population demographics in the respective markets. Furthermore, epidemiologists attribute the growth in prevalent cases to increased prevalence of risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes, such as obesity and physical inactivity, together with urbanization. Analysis shows that diabetes is undoubtedly one of the most challenging public health problems of the 21st century, with an increasing burden of the disease in all the markets and its strong association with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.