EpiCast Report: Asthma - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

Friday 31 May 2013, Amsterdam

EpiCast Report: Asthma - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022
Asthma is a chronic inflammatory lung disease that affects persons of all ages, but most commonly starts in childhood. It is a common long-term condition characterized by narrowing of the airways, leading to airflow limitation and airway hyper-responsiveness whenever the lungs come into contact with endogenous and exogenous irritants. Exposure to irritants instigates a series of events, such as swelling of the airways, tightening of the respiratory muscles, and increased mucus production, leading to reduced airflow into the lungs. These chain reactions within the airways lead to the symptoms of asthma, which are often paroxysmal or persistent, such as recurring periods of coughing, wheezing (whistling sound when breathing), breathlessness, and chest tightness (NHS, 2013; NIH, 2012a). The 2004 Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) report estimated that 300 million people suffered from asthma worldwide, with the prevalence varying widely in different countries. However, recent trends show that the disparity is narrowing due to the rising prevalence of asthma in developing countries and the plateauing prevalence in developed countries. Asthma accounts for approximately 250,000 deaths around the world annually, deaths that otherwise could be easily prevented through appropriate treatment (Masoli et al., 2004; WHO, 2007).

This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends for asthma in the 10 major markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Australia, China, and India). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the lifetime prevalent cases of asthma segmented by sex, age (in fiveyear
increments beginning at 0 years and ending at ≥8 5 years), and asthma severity in these markets. Epidemiologists forecast the prevalence of asthma in the 10 major markets from 2012–2022 using country-specific studies published in peer-reviewed journals that provided the age- and sex-specific prevalence of asthma in the respective markets. They further segmented the asthma prevalent cases in all the major markets by asthma severity based on the GINA guidelines. The forecast methodology was consistent across all the 10 major markets to allow for a meaningful comparison among them.

In 2012, there were 135.28 million lifetime prevalent cases of asthma in the 10 major markets, with approximately 80.00 million cases in the US (41.90 million cases) and India (39.00 million cases) combined. Epidemiologists forecast that there will be approximately 159.20 million lifetime prevalent cases of asthma in the 10 major markets by 2022, with an overall growth of 17.7% over the next decade.

To summarize, epidemiological forecast predicted a substantial increase in the lifetime prevalent cases of asthma in all of the markets, except for Germany and Japan. The epidemiologists attribute the growth in the prevalent cases of asthma to changing population demographics in all the markets, except for the US and the UK, where this growth is also attributed to trends in both genetic determinants and environmental factors. In addition, analysis demonstrates the increasing social burden of asthma in these markets and the growing necessity for healthcare providers, policymakers, and states to plan effective clinical and public health strategies. To conclude, governments should focus more on educating people about avoiding the risks for asthma and managing their symptoms, so they can live longer and more productive lives while reducing healthcare costs (de Marco et al., 2012).
EpiCast Report: Asthma - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

EpiCast Report: Asthma - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

Publish date : May 2013
Report code : ASDR-65672
Pages : 79

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