|Feb 2014||123||Strategic Defense Intelligence||ASDR-98034|
This report is the result of extensive market and company research covering the defense industry in the MINT region, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecasted defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.
Introduction and Landscape
Why was the report written?
Future of the Defense Industry in MINT - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain market share in the MINT defense industry.
What is the current market landscape and what is changing?
The economies of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey (MINT) are now all set to take up the mantle as the next focal points of attention with respect to international trade and commerce. One of the major factors driving growth in these countries is simply the unsaturation of the market, which was (and still is, albeit less than before) experienced by the BRIC nations for the last 12 years.For the most part defense industries of the MINT countries, having exhibited double digit growth rates during the review period, are expected to do so over the next five years as well, with the exception of Turkey, which is poised to grow at a CAGR of 6.48%. Indonesia with an estimated cumulative spend of US$98.5 billion is expected to witness the highest growth rate of 17.49% with Nigeria consolidating its position as one of the most potentially attractive markets in Africa with a growth rate of 12.61%; the Mexican defense market is expected to register a growth rate of 10.53%.
What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?
With various threats such as drug and human trafficking, money laundering, cyber-crime and arms trafficking becoming commonplace in the region, the governments of the various countries are expected to invest significantly in acquiring all types of military equipment such as UAVs, helicopters, aircraft, biometric systems and radars. Turkey, with a total spending of US$69.4 billion, is expected to dominate the homeland security market in the region, with Indonesia, Mexico and Nigeria completing the list in that order.
What makes this report unique and essential to read?
The Future of the MINT Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2015 to 2019, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
Key Features and Benefits
The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2015 to 2019, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the MINT defense industry.
The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.
The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed s of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in the MINT region. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.
Key Market Issues
Mexico has not disclosed any offset obligations imposed for its arms procurement, which is partially responsible for the lack of development in the domestic defense industry. The Indonesian government is currently in the process of working out a formal offset guideline to replace long-standing ad-hoc practices, which are apparently ineffective for technological transfers. Nigeria has not disclosed any offset obligations imposed by the country for its arms procurement. Turkey is the only country with proper offset arrangements in place since 1991 which aims to aims to encourage exports, create a self-sufficient defense industry, and encourage foreign investment.
The countries of the MINT region are set to experience strong economic growth over the forecast period. Mexico, with a GDP of US$1.4 trillion and per-capita of US$11,224, is a major oil exporter and a member of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). Turkey has a GDP of US$790 billion and a per capita income of US$10,666 along with a serious candidature for the membership of the European Union. Nigeria and Indonesia with GDPs of US$318.5 billion and US$867.4 billion are too experiencing a wave of robust economic growth. Modernization cycles are the most common drivers of defense spending globally, this isno different in the MINT region with the various countries spending heavily to keep their weapons arsenal up to sync. Territorial disputes are another major factor driving the region’s defense expenditure. Examples include Turkey and Greece’s dispute over territorial rights in the Aegean Sea, with both countries laying claim to the Aegean continental shelf and exploration rights to minerals and oil under the seabed. Furthermore, the two nations are also involved in a conflict over the control of Cyprus. Indonesia currently faces an uneasy relationship with its neighbor, Malaysia, over the Ambalat sea block. Both countries claim ownership of the oil-rich sea block situated in the Celebes Sea which borders the Malaysian state Sabah.
Drug trafficking is now rampant all over the world, more so in a few countries of the MINT region. Mexico is probably the most adversely affected by this than any other country globally. The nation has also had to grapple with crimes related to drug trafficking which include weapons and human trafficking, money laundering, vehicle theft, kidnappings, and extortion. Nigeria has been a center for drug trafficking in Africa; the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) was formed in 2004 in an attempt to control this threat. In April 2011 the agency destroyed over 46,740.5 kg of illicit drugs, mainly cannabis, in the states of Kogi and Ondo. Other than drug trafficking internal conflicts have been another major concern in countries like Indonesia, Turkey and Nigeria. Indonesia still faces threats from insurgent groups such as the Free Papua Organisation (Organisasi Papua Merdeka, OPM) and the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM). In Turkey, a major challenge to the country’s HLS is posed by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an organization which resorts to violent methods in an attempt to establish an independent Kurdish state. In addition, the nation is also prone to terror attacks from global terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party. In order to prevent such attacks, the nation plans to invest in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), improvised explosive device (IED) jammers, intelligence and communication systems, and reconnaissance and surveillance satellites. In Nigeria, radical Islamic group, Boko Haram flared up the rebellion in northeast Nigeria leading to the announcement of emergency in these states by the President in May. Boko Haram is believed to be behind the kidnappings of foreign nationals for ransom and subsequent killings in the past two years.
The MINT region as a whole is characterized by robust imports of arms and ammunition. This is primarily due to under developed domestic defense industries,Turkey being the sole exception. Mexico’s domestic arms manufacturing capabilities are limited to the production of small arms, machine guns, and helicopter maintenance services, which has resulted in the country importing defense equipment in which dmestic suppliers are not specialized, such as aircraft, aircraft engines, sensors, artillery, and missiles. Indonesia’s imports have been steadily increasing with ships, aircraft and missiles constituting the major categories while China and Italy have been the main suppliers of arms to Nigeria. Even though Turkey’s defense industry is comparatively more developed than the other countries in the region, it still currently meets the majority of its defense requirements through imports, with foreign companies supplying 55% of the country’s defense requirements in 2011.