Argentina Defence and Security Report 2014
Our View: Argentina is facing into a period of political transition. President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was forced to hand over to her vice president in October due to ill-health, amid mid-term elections and having replaced the heads of all of the country’s armed services. However, despite ongoing economic difficulties - such as the costly loss of an international court case over so-called ’vulture funds’ - Argentina is proceeding with defence reform and modernisation.
In BMI’s view the combination of elections and ill-health could spell the beginning of the end of Fernández’s premiership, which could see her Peronist movement failing to win a third term in office. On the international stage, Fernández’s leadership was characterised by an increasingly fractious relationship with the United Kingdom over the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas dispute, and an embarrassing rejection by Spain in late 2013 of suggested ’joint action’ against the UK. There could yet be a further increase in tensions as well as additional attempts by Argentina to rally Latin American support for their claim, although at this point a return to hostilities is unlikely.
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