Bosnia and Herzegovina Defence and Security Report 2014
Our View: Political instability remains the key security concern in Bosnia in the near term. With a general election due in October 2014, party brinkmanship could exacerbate ethnic divisions among the population of Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks. Nevertheless, at the time of writing Bosnia’s candidacy for European Union membership has been described as being ’on track’ by a senior EU official. Security threats stem from a number of issues including: threats of Serb succession; regional developments with Croatia and Kosovo; porous borders facilitating organised crime and the black market trade in arms. Defence spending is forecast to fall over the year from a huge drop in 2013; due to a lack of government funded procurement, Bosnia will continue in its role as a small arms exporter.
Bosnia is preparing for an election later in 2014 which, coupled with the October 2013 holding of the country’s first census, could witness an increase in polarisation among Bosnia’s ethnic groups. Tensions between Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats - will remain the defining issue of the country’s political landscape over the next 10 years. Failure to agree on key reforms issues, such as the delayed census, could trigger an irreparable split in the governing coalition, even before the 2014 election date
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