This report is the result of an extensive market and company research covering the global commercial aircraft industry. It provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast global industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.
Introduction and Landscape
Why was the report written?
“The Global Commercial Aircraft Market 2013-2023” offers the reader detailed analysis of the global commercial aircraft market over the next ten years, alongside potential market opportunities to enter the industry, using detailed market size forecasts.
What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?
The global commercial aircraft sector is expected to experience a slow and stable growth during the forecast period. Airline companies around the world are expected to procure approximately 34000 airplanes during the 2011-2031 periods according to Boeing’s estimates. The commercial aircraft market grows parallel to the civil aviation markets across all major countries. With the civil aviation market improving steadily following the recent economic recession, the airline companies are spending significantly to replace their ageing aircraft fleets. Additionally, the expansion plans of airlines from major emerging markets of the Asia Pacific region, the Middle East, and Europe has initiated a series of contracts for aircrafts of various types during the last few years. The global air traffic has also grown substantially with the surge in the number of passengers preferring air travel. These factors are therefore expected to cumulatively drive the commercial aircraft market during the forecast period.
What makes this report unique and essential to read?
“The Global Commercial Aircraft Market 2013-2023” provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013 to 2023, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
Key Features and Benefits
The report provides detailed analysis of the market for commercial aircraft during 2013-2023, including the factors that influence why countries are investing or cutting aircraft expenditure. It provides detailed expectations of growth rates and projected total expenditure.
Recent years have witnessed a revolution in the digitization of the commercial aircraft industry with various airlines realizing the importance of providing added features such as real-time weather details, flight operations, asset tracking, health monitoring, and airport taxi services. The near future will see significant opportunities for aircraft manufacturers and OEMs to use various means of digitization as a potential source of differentiation. Today’s world is increasingly adopting the digital model in all aspects of living and thus embedded sensors improve the efficiency of business processes when combined with mobility applications. An example of such an initiative is United Airlines rolling out 11,000 Apple iPads to its pilots in an effort to further digitize the cockpits. The iPads are infused to replace the paper manuals with electronic flight bags (EFB) that will be available on the Apple iPad via dedicated application. These devices are expected to reduce the amount of paper required for flight operating manuals, navigation charts, reference handbooks, flight checklists etc.
Key Market Issues
One of the major challenges being faced by the industry is the sheer expense involved in developing a new commercial aircraft. A good example of this is the US$32 billion that Boeing spent to develop its 787 Dreamliner, due to which it doesn’t expect to see any profits for the next 10 years at least; the company’s initial estimate was a development cost not exceeding US$6 billion. According to Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President with the aviation-consulting firm Avitas, even though the 787 Dreamliner may be the best commercial plane ever built, its development is likely to result in heavy losses for the company. Similarly, the development costs for Airbus’s A380 have topped US$18 billion and this aircraft too could result in the company incurring losses. Delivery delays for the 787 are also expected to add to the problems faced by Boeing.
Commercial airlines incur the highest expenditure on fuel; over 33% of total cost. This is why the current steady increase in fuel prices globally poses such a significant risk to the overall sustainability of the industry. In today’s economic climate when carriers are competing fiercely for market share, fuel prices play a major role in determining profitability. The rising fuel prices have been attributed to be one of the major reasons for the recent collapse of the European carriers including Malev and Spanair. According to IATA’s forecasts, the average fuel prices are expected to be US$130 per barrel compared to the earlier expected US$124 per barrel in 2013. Considering the global economic growth, which is currently pegged at 2%, the global aviation industry is under considerable threat from rising fuel prices and industry think tanks are now asking governments to re-think regulations such as the controversial carbon tax being imposed by the European Union on the industry.
The US and European countries have traditionally been viewed as the prominent centers of the global commercial aircraft market. This has however, started to change in recent years with the saturation of these markets and the resultant negligible growth. Countries of the Asia Pacific and the Middle East regions that are experiencing robust economic growth are now emerging as the markets with the maximum growth potential, while the US and Europe are expected to procure aircraft primarily for fleet modernization. Indonesia, China, Malaysia, Australia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel are examples of countries that are expected to exhibit double digit growth over the forecast period. According to a report published by Airbus, Asia-Pacific will account for approximately 34% of the demand for commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, with India (9.8%) and China (7.2%) having the fastest growth rates in terms of passenger traffic on domestic markets.
Research and development in the commercial aircraft industry is currently focused primarily on developing technologies that aid in fuel efficiency. With fuel prices having increased substantially over the last few years, developing aircrafts that consume less fuel has become mandatory for reducing the cost of ownership and ensuring sustenance and profitability for airline companies. This need is further compounded by the residual effects of the September 11 attacks on the US that have most adversely impacted the global commercial aviation industry. Globally, various airlines are now considering retiring some of their current fleet earlier than originally planned in order to replace them with a newer generation of models, with a view of achieving considerably lower operating costs. This drive for more efficient aircraft will also increase demand for modularization of design given that it will enable efficiency upgrades.