GlobalData raised its forecast for Colombia’s construction output growth to 13.6% in 2021 from 11.9% previously, after posting an upwardly revised decline of 25.8% in 2020. Over the remainder of the forecast period (2022-2025), growth is expected to moderate to an annual average of 6.5%. The higher forecast for 2021 reflects favorable base effects and the stronger-than-expected construction activity in Q1 2021, despite the second wave of Coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. The forecast also assumes additional progress in vaccine rollouts, which will allow hard-hit sectors such as retail, office and leisure and hospitality to recover faster over the next quarters. Improving external conditions amid higher oil prices and strong US growth are also expected to bode well for business investment and growth over the rest of the year, while a looser fiscal position ahead of the presidential election next year will further help drive domestic demand.
Figures from National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) showed that construction output in Colombia rose for the third successive quarter during Q1 2021, rising by 17% quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) in Q1 2021, from an upwardly revised increase of 0.1% in Q4 2020 (-0.2% previously). The infrastructure segment posted the biggest increase (14.4%), followed by residential and non-residential buildings (5.7%) and specialized works (4.8%). The stronger-than-expected quarterly performance in Q1 will probably be followed by a marked slowdown in Q2, as the economy took a hit in May due to nationwide protests over the now withdrawn tax reform which caused roadblocks and shortages of key inputs, and made it difficult for construction workers to reach their job sites. Many construction works throughout the country were, as a result, affected or stopped in recent months. According to the Colombian Chamber of Construction (CAMACOL), there were over 1,700 construction projects affected across country due to the road blockades as of May 26th, 2021, and over 1.3 million jobs in the same situation as of June 9th, 2021, as workers have not been able to travel to construction sites.
The government’s focus on infrastructure and the continuity of programs that promote the development and financing of housing, such as Viviendas de Interest Social or Social Interest Housing (VIS) and non-VIS, is nevertheless expected to support the expansion of the industry in the second half of 2021 (H1 2021). CAMACOL projects that 232,300 housing units (160,980 VIS units and 71,315 non-VIS units) will be sold by the end of this year, in an increase of 13.4% compared to 2020. It also projects that the construction of 166,016 new home units will start. Moreover, ongoing efforts to accelerate the completion of Colombia’s fourth generation (4G) road infrastructure program and push forward with plans of its fifth generation (5G) concessions program should continue to drive the industry’s growth in the quarters ahead.
Our Construction in Colombia - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2025 (H2 2021) report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into Colombia’s construction industry, including -
- Colombia’s construction industry’s growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in Colombia’s construction industry
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Colombia. It provides -
- Historical (2016-2020) and forecast (2021-2025) valuations of the construction industry in Colombia, featuring details of key growth drivers.
- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants
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