The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, dubbed COVID-19, is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people globally. The contagious Coronavirus, which broke out at the close of 2019, has led to a medical emergency across the world, with the World Health Organization officially declaring the novel Coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020.
Fears surrounding the impact of COVID-19 have already significantly impacted the global economy, with key markets across the world losing 20-50% of their value for the year to date. Many economists and institutions have cut their forecasts, with consensus global GDP growth currently at 2.6% for 2020 and many experts predicting the potential onset of recessionary environments.
A similar trend can be seen in Germany. The country’s GDP has been revised downward for 2020 due to the economic disruption caused following the outbreak of Coronavirus. Germany is among the worst affected countries in the world, with total confirmed cases of 195,758 as of July 1, 2020. However, with new cases falling the government is slowly lifting lockdown restrictions. This move is expected to help revive the economy, benefiting the country’s retail saving and investments industry.
This report focuses on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on the German economy and the country’s retail savings and investment market. It also highlights the measures adopted by the government to combat COVID-19. Based on our proprietary datasets, the snap shot contrasts GlobalData’s pre-COVID-19 forecasts and revised forecasts of total retail bond, deposits, equities and mutual funds holdings in terms of value and growth rates. It also analyses the effects on HNW wealth, examining the importance of different industries as a contributor to HNW wealth.
- German retail savings and investments are forecast to decline by 0.4% over the course of 2020 as the economy has been affected by the impacts of COVID-19. Retail equity and mutual fund holdings are expected to take the brunt of the economy’s slowdown, with respective declines of 19.6% and 11.0% anticipated.
- Meanwhile, retail bonds are forecast to experience significant inflows as investors seek out the stable returns of fixed-income products despite the lack of real returns, so as to mitigate the overall risk of their portfolio. Consequently, we anticipate a 2.5% increase in retail bond holdings in 2020, as opposed to -5.8% as forecast pre-COVID-19.
- With the majority of banks implementing negative interest rates in the country to boost overall economic activity, we expect deposit balances to grow at a slow pace in the coming years after the initial flight to safety in 2020 wears off.
- The effects on the different segments that make up the HNW market will be disproportionate. The financial services and investments sector, which is the largest contributor to German HNW wealth, has already taken a significant hit, as indicated by the 23.1% decrease of the DAXsector All Banks index since the beginning of the year.
- The healthcare sector - the second-largest contributor to HNW wealth - has been less severely impacted, with the DAXsector Pharma & Healthcare declining by a comparatively lower 2.1% since the beginning of 2020.
- As an export nation, Germany’s manufacturing sector has been hit particularly hard, as a strong fall in global demand combined with interrupted supply chains has taken its toll. While production is gradually increasing with the easing of lockdown measures, sparse demand for output remains a headwind for this sector.
Reasons To Buy
- Make strategic decisions using top-level revised forecast data on the German retail savings and investments industry.
- Understand the key market trends, challenges, and opportunities in the German retail savings and investments industry.
- Receive a comprehensive insight into the retail liquid asset holdings in Germany, including deposits, mutual funds, equities, and bonds.