COVID-19 update included
The content of this report will be updated with the latest scenarios based on the global COVID-19 Pandemic


The UK "Economic & Retail Update - Q4 2018", report offers comprehensive insight and analysis of the UK economy and retail environment (including forecasts up to 2023). It provides in-depth analysis of the following: the key issues regarding the UK economy (including CPI, unemployment rate and etc.), and the key issues regarding the UK retail market (including online, offline and non-food markets).


  • The Budget announced a rise in both the National Living Wage and the non-taxable personal allowance threshold, which will provide consumers with additional funds in 2019. However, the impact of a negative outcome of the Brexit negotiations would more than offset any potential gain.
  • The anticipated rise in food prices in 2019 and continued pressure on consumer funds will see food & groceries’ share of the retail market increase 0.1ppts per year out to 2023.
  • Health & beauty continues to lead retail in terms of growth, with cosmetics, skincare and OTC medicines the sub-sectors of highest growth. Non-specialists, such as the grocers, are looking to capitalise on this.
  • The continued physical expansion of the discounters, particularly Aldi and B&M, will turn negative offline growth in 2018 positive in 2019. These retailers have indentified large-store locations vacated by retailers such as Homebase and Toys R Us as potential sites for future stores.

Reasons To Buy

  • Understand how announcements in the October 2018 Budget will impact retail, so you can prepare for changes in spend patterns as taxation and the personal allowance threshold changes
  • Learn about the interaction between unemployment and real wage growth, and how you will need to become more competitive with respect to recruitment
  • See how consumers’ future sentiment is changing, allowing you to better prepare for upcoming macroeconomic uncertainty
  • Comprehend the importance of the online channel within different retail sectors, enabling you to create effective long-term strategies in this burgeoning market.