Our View: We expect Colombia’s defence budget to decrease in 2015 in absolute terms, due to the
economic slowdown the country is experiencing. As the war on drugs continues, however, and as Colombia
is seeking to gain an international stance in relation to security and defence, the share of defence spending
as part of GDP will be maintained at 3.7%. We expect defence spending will resume its increase in 2016 for
the rest of the forecasting period to 2019, driven by the government’s desire to develop and expand its
domestic defence sector.
As a result of weaker trade dynamics (especially in the oil production sector), weakening consumer
confidence and increasing unemployment, Colombia is currently experiencing an economic slowdown. This
will have an impact on the country’s defence budget, which is set to fall to USD11.6bn in 2015. However,
since the war on drugs is still very much ongoing, and Colombia retains a need to maintain well-trained and
well-equipped armed forces, we expect that the share of the defence budget as part of GDP will remain at