South Africa Defence and Security Report Q1 2015
The new report thinks that the South Africa defence budget and armed forces are likely to continuing facing substantial challenges in the years ahead. We think there seems to be a clear need for higher defence spending, although note that the defence industry remains an important player in the international arms market and numerous acquisitions are taking place in the local market. We think that South Africa’s major security threat is the internal threat stemming from high levels of crime.
We expect the South African defence budget to reach USD3.9bn in 2015. For the remainder of the forecast period, up to and including 2018, we expect the defence budget to rise at approximately 2.5-2.8% annually. As a percentage of GDP and in absolute terms, we think South Africa’s defence spending remains below par to that of Angola’s and Algeria’s, although note that neither Angola nor Algeria are likely to aspire to the same continental ambitions as South Africa.
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