Executive summary p8

Introduction p16

Amazon Fresh: the background, why the move into grocery? p17 Amazon: different business models, .com (1P and 3P), Pantry, Fresh, dash, Prime Now p18 Amazon: different business models, the fresh business p19 Amazon Fresh: logistics, .com integration, cooking videos p20

USA p21

Data: The online grocery market in $bn 2014-2017 p22 Data: Amazon grocery sales in $bn, Fresh sales in $bn, 2016 p23 Data: Data, key customer statistics, uplifts, basket sizes, the reasons behind Fresh p24

USA: Amazon Prime Now partnership with Sprouts p25 USA: Amazon Fresh – price drop, monthly plan p26 USA: Amazon Fresh – price drop, monthly plan, analysis p27 USA: Fresh In Chicago, Dallas and South Florida p28

UK p29

UK: Amazon Fresh and Morrisons – a transformational deal p30 UK: Amazon Fresh and Morrisons – leveraging manufacturing, vertical integration p31 UK: Amazon Fresh and Morrisons – what’s in it for Britain’s number 4 p32

UK: Amazon Fresh and Morrisons – four key implications p33 UK: Amazon Fresh and Morrisons – scaling the range and prime benefits p34 UK: Amazon Fresh – local & regional foods, tweaking the offer p35 UK: Amazon Fresh London – local food a real USP, decline of Hubbub p36 UK: Morrisons Prime Now link up p37 UK: Fresh expansion p38

Data: Amazon, Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda, Ocado, Waitrose, Morrisons pricing data 2017 p39 Fresh: Amazon Fresh leading the sector on price, February 2017 p40 Fresh: Amazon Fresh and the sector – price comparisons, June 2016 p41

Germany p42

Germany: the use cases for imminent online grocery deliveries p43 Germany: The importance of the 3P marketplace for Amazon Fresh p44 Germany: Amazon Fresh starting date revealed p45 Germany: Amazon Fresh logistics set up in Germany, all 3PLs? p46 Germany: Amazon Fresh, dual use warehouse in Munich p47 Germany: Amazon Fresh, starting date set in Berlin for April 2017 p48 Germany: Amazon recruiting Migros and Tegut as 3P supplier partners p49 Germany: the big bang announcement, DHL will provide logistics services p50

Data: Fresh and Prime Now sales forecasts for Germany in ?m, 2016/7-2020 p51

Strategy section p52

Grocery Private Label p53

Private label grocery: the introduction p54 Private label grocery: will Elements become a premium line? p55 Private label grocery: prime only? Stronger negotiation position vs. FMCGs p56 Private label grocery: launch of prime exclusive, global roll-out? p57 Private label grocery: starting to take market share, data p58 Private label grocery: Presto!, the risks of manufacturing p60 Private label grocery: Wickedly prime is launched p62 Private label grocery: Elements vitamins and supplements p63 Private label grocery: operating in a supplement market rife with fraud p64

Physical, bricks & mortar, Grocery Stores p65

Stores: Analysis – introduction, three prototypes p66 Stores: Analysis – the issues of food spoilage p67 Stores: Analysis – long term strategy, B2B and a hybrid store? p68 Stores: Analysis – stores offer new possibilities for regional and localised ranges p69

The drive thru stores p70

Drive thru: Project X, August 2016 and first plans are surfacing p73 Drive thru: Project X – the Seattle catchment, operations p74 Drive thru: Project X – new technologies p75 Drive thru: Project X – March 2017 opening p76

The Amazon Go store p78

Amazon Go: getting rid of queues p84 Amazon Go: selling the technology on to other retailers? p85 Amazon Go: could become a game changer when labor costs are increasing p86 Amazon Go: how the sensor fusion technology works – the patents p87 Amazon Go: how the sensor fusion technology works II p88 Amazon Go: nine points to take into consideration p89 Amazon Go: nine details to consider when judging Amazon Go p90 Amazon Go: coming to the UK? p91 Amazon Go: teething problems, only works with 20 shoppers in store so far p92

The convenience stores p93

Project Como: the third prototype, drawing inspiration from Aldi and Lidl p94 Project Como: 2,000 Amazon Fresh grocery stores in the US over the next decade? p95 Project Como: 20-store pilot program for now, could it work? p96 Project Como: Amazon Fresh program on track, no updates on stores p97 Project Como: Amazon denies 2,000 store target categorically p98 Project Como: only three human workers per store? NY Post story p99 Project Como: the NY post non story? Robots on rooftops? Bezos denial p100

Restaurants & Foodservice p101

Restaurants: restaurant deliveries in Seattle, a Spotlight update p102 Restaurants: Amazon daily dish p103

Restaurants: Amazon taking on and copying Peach p104 Restaurants: Blue Apron-like recipe delivery service started in Q3 2016 p105 Restaurants: eyeing the UK market, starting a delivery service, Amazon Restaurants p107 Restaurants: Martha Stewart & Marley spoon debut on Amazon Fresh p108 Restaurants: How Amazon Fresh organises the logistics for the restaurant service p109

Recommendations for FMCG: the fall out from Amazon Fresh p110

Recommendations: FMCG partners, what to consider, Pantry vs. Fresh vs. .com p111 Recommendations: model out profitability for the next ten years on line by line basis p112 Recommendations: Omnichannel players, launching a 3P operation p113

Outlook: the Amazon Fresh opportunity going forward p114

Sources p120

Chart 1: USA data: The online grocery market in $bn, 2014-2017 p22 Chart 2: Fresh: Data, key customer statistics, uplifts, basket sizes, the reasons behind Fresh p24

Table 1: Amazon, Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda, Ocado, Waitrose, Morrisons pricing data UK, Feb 2017 p39 Table 2: Data: Amazon Fresh sales forecasts for Germany in ?m, 2017-2020 p51 Table 3: Data: Prime Now sales forecasts for Germany in ?m, 2016-2020 p51