New Drug Launches Will Drive Rapid Growth in the US and EU Pancreatic Cancer Market from 2012–2017

The new report estimates that the value of the pancreatic cancer market in the US and 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) in 2012 was $529m. This market is defined as sales of branded drugs and major generic regimens commonly prescribed for pancreatic cancer patients across the six major markets (6MM). Just over half of these sales, $275m (52%), were generated in the US, while sales in the 5EU were estimated at $254m (48%).  

By 2017, the end of the forecast period, the report projects pancreatic cancer sales to rise to $1.63 billion in the US and 5EU, at a high Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 25.2%. The report expects the proportion of sales from the US to increase to 72%, with market share in the 5EU decreasing to 28% by 2017. The overall rapid increase in the market size across the 6MM is attributed to the launch of Celgene’s Abraxane in 2013 in the US and 2014 in Europe, and the incorporation of five pipeline agents into US clinical practice by the end of the forecast period. The new report forecasts sales of Abraxane to rise significantly, from $21m in 2012 to $954m in 2017, at a CAGR of 115%; sales of Abraxane will represent nearly 60% of the pancreatic cancer market by the end of the forecast period.


Major drivers of the pancreatic cancer market in the US and 5EU during the forecast period include the following:

• The greatest driver of the pancreatic cancer market across the 6MM will be the strong and rapid adoption of premium-priced Abraxane in place of generic chemotherapy regimens, such as FOLFIRINOX (5-flourouracil [5-FU]/leucovorin/irinotecan/oxaliplatin) and gemcitabine monotherapy.  The new report forecasts particularly strong growth in the US, the largest market for pancreatic cancer therapeutics, and the market where Abraxane is priced the highest.
• Of the five new pipeline agents that will be launched during the forecast period, NewLink Genetics Corporation’s algenpantucel-L is expected to garner the highest sales, and is expected to launch in both the resectable and unresectable locally-advanced settings. Other drugs with significant forecast sales by 2017 include Threshold Pharmaceuticals/Merck’s TH-302, and Merrimack Pharmaceuticals’ MM-398.
• The incidence of pancreatic cancer is increasing across the 6MM, resulting in further treatment opportunities for premium-priced therapeutics.