Following a launch scheduled for 2015 for the treatment of Chronic Heart Failure (CHF), Novartis’ novel combination drug LCZ-696 will rapidly dominate the global CHF therapeutics sector and mark a drug development paradigm shift, says the new report.
The latest report forecasts global sales of LCZ-696 to reach a massive $1.86 billion by 2022, with an estimated 15%-20% of all CHF patients across the US and Europe treated with the drug by the end of the forecast period.
As the world’s largest pharmaceutical market by some margin, and the first to receive Novartis’ promising new product, analysts expect the US to make up the bulk of LCZ-696’s sales over the next decade. Revenue for the first-in-class combination drug is anticipated to top $1.6 billion by 2022, making it the most valuable drug in the US CHF market, with a 55% share.
Uptake of LCZ-696 will be less impressive across Europe after an anticipated 2016 market entry, due to restrained healthcare spending and a greater penetration of generics. Of the five major European markets studied in the report (UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain), the new report believes LCZ-696 will become the top CHF therapeutic option only in the UK and Germany by 2022.
With LCZ-696 acting as the key market driver, the global CHF therapeutics market is forecast to growth from 2012 value of $2.6 billion to $4.5 billion in 2022, climbing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.7%.