A new report predicts the world market for orphan cancer drugs will reach $50.3bn in 2017. Strong growth for Revlimid and Velcade in multiple myeloma will stimulate that expansion, as will the launch of new therapies for chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) in the US and EU in 2012 and 2013. Rituxan will be the bestselling orphan cancer drug in 2013, with revenue of $7.49bn. Those revenue forecasts and others appear in Orphan Drugs for Cancer: R&D and Market 2013-2023, published in July 2013.
This study shows fastest growth will come in the leukaemia and multiple myeloma submarkets. Three new therapies were launched in the CML sector and two new drugs were approved in the multiple myeloma submarket between the beginning of 2012 and June 2013. These new orphan drugs will drive growth in these segments in the first half of the forecast period. For other leading segments, growth will be slower to 2023. Growth in these submarkets will be restrained by patent expiries for leading products. In glioma, revenues for Merck & Co.’s Temodar have fallen in recent years and will continue to do so with the launch of the first generics in the US in the second half of 2013. The launch of biosimilar competitors to Rituxan from 2015 in the US, EU and Japan will similarly limit growth in the lymphoma submarket.
Richard Lang, a pharmaceutical market analyst, said: “Unmet treatment needs exist in almost all orphan cancer indications. Through the success of drugs such as Novartis’ Glivec and Celgene’s Revlimid, pharmaceutical companies have seen the opportunities that developing drugs for rare cancers can bring. There are hundreds of new therapies in development targeting these diseases, providing hope for patients in the future. However, increasing competitiveness in leading orphan cancer submarkets – resulting from the launch of new drugs in this decade – may limit the potential for many of these pipeline therapies.
“The rising incidence of cancer worldwide will play a small role in the growth of the orphan cancer drug market. The increased number of patients, along with the rising prices for cancer medicines, may restrict which drugs healthcare payers are willing to pay for. Cost effectiveness and superior efficacy will increasingly impact the uptake of new drugs in many orphan cancer indications.”
This new report forecasts the overall world market to 2023 for orphan anticancer drugs, as well as giving revenue predictions for its submarkets: